Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Scarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.

We aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.

This European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Among adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24–47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44–72%), 43% (95% CI: 26–55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13–43%) < 90, 90–179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32–51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47–64%), 22% (95% CI: 2–38%) and 3% (95% CI: −78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.

Primary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Model projections of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence help policymakers about decisions to implement or lift control measures. During the pandemic, policymakers in the Netherlands were informed on a weekly basis with short-term projections of COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.

We aimed at developing a model on ICU admissions and updating a procedure for informing policymakers.

The projections were produced using an age-structured transmission model. A consistent, incremental update procedure integrating all new surveillance and hospital data was conducted weekly. First, up-to-date estimates for most parameter values were obtained through re-analysis of all data sources. Then, estimates were made for changes in the age-specific contact rates in response to policy changes. Finally, a piecewise constant transmission rate was estimated by fitting the model to reported daily ICU admissions, with a changepoint analysis guided by Akaike's Information Criterion.

The model and update procedure allowed us to make weekly projections. Most 3-week prediction intervals were accurate in covering the later observed numbers of ICU admissions. When projections were too high in March and August 2020 or too low in November 2020, the estimated effectiveness of the policy changes was adequately adapted in the changepoint analysis based on the natural accumulation of incoming data.

The model incorporates basic epidemiological principles and most model parameters were estimated per data source. Therefore, it had potential to be adapted to a more complex epidemiological situation with the rise of new variants and the start of vaccination.

Wastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the applicability of wastewater surveillance as a monitoring tool.

To present an analytical framework for capturing the growth trend of circulating infections from wastewater data and conducting scenario analyses to guide policy decisions.

We developed a mathematical model for translating the observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater into effective reproduction numbers. We used an extended Kalman filter to infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. We also illustrated the impact of different countermeasures such as expanded vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the projected number of cases using three study areas in Japan during 2021–22 as an example.

Observed notified cases were matched with the range of cases estimated by our approach with wastewater data only, across different study areas and virus quantification methods, especially when the disease prevalence was high. Estimated reproduction numbers derived from wastewater data were consistent with notification-based reproduction numbers. Our projections showed that a 10–20% increase in vaccination coverage or a 10% reduction in contact rate may suffice to initiate a declining trend in study areas.

Our study demonstrates how wastewater data can be used to track reproduction numbers and perform scenario modelling to inform policy decisions. The proposed framework complements conventional clinical surveillance, especially when reliable and timely epidemiological data are not available.

Women are overrepresented among individuals with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). Biological (sex) as well as sociocultural (gender) differences between women and men might account for this imbalance, yet their impact on PASC is unknown.

We assessed the impact of sex and gender on PASC in a Swiss population.

Our multicentre prospective cohort study included 2,856 (46% women, mean age 44.2 ± 16.8 years) outpatients and hospitalised patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Among those who remained outpatients during their first infection, women reported persisting symptoms more often than men (40.5% vs 25.5% of men; p < 0.001). This sex difference was absent in hospitalised patients. In a crude analysis, both female biological sex (RR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.41–1.79; p < 0.001) and a score summarising gendered sociocultural variables (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03–1.07; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with PASC. Following multivariable adjustment, biological female sex (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.74–1.25; p = 0.763) was outperformed by feminine gender-related factors such as a higher stress level (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01–1.06; p = 0.003), lower education (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03–1.30; p = 0.011), being female and living alone (RR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.29–2.83; p = 0.001) or being male and earning the highest income in the household (RR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60–0.97; p = 0.030).

Specific sociocultural parameters that differ in prevalence between women and men, or imply a unique risk for women, are predictors of PASC and may explain, at least in part, the higher incidence of PASC in women. Once patients are hospitalised during acute infection, sex differences in PASC are no longer evident.

Understanding the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of new COVID-19 vaccine formulations against SARS-CoV-2 infection is a public health priority. A precise analysis of the rVE of monovalent and bivalent boosters given during the 2022 spring-summer and autumn-winter campaigns, respectively, in a defined population remains of interest.

We assessed rVE against hospitalisation for the spring-summer (fourth vs third monovalent mRNA vaccine doses) and autumn-winter (fifth BA.1/ancestral bivalent vs fourth monovalent mRNA vaccine dose) boosters.

We performed a prospective single-centre test-negative design case–control study in ≥ 75-year-old people hospitalised with COVID-19 or other acute respiratory disease. We conducted regression analyses controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, patient comorbidities, community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, vaccine brand and time between baseline dose and hospitalisation.

We included 682 controls and 182 cases in the spring-summer booster analysis and 572 controls and 152 cases in the autumn-winter booster analysis. A monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fourth dose showed 46.6% rVE (95% confidence interval (CI): 13.9–67.1) vs those not fully boosted. A bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fifth dose had 46.7% rVE (95% CI: 18.0–65.1), compared with a fourth monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.

Both fourth monovalent and fifth BA.1/ancestral mRNA bivalent COVID-19 vaccine doses demonstrated benefit as a booster in older adults. Bivalent mRNA boosters offered similar protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection to monovalent mRNA boosters given earlier in the year. These findings support immunisation programmes in several European countries that advised the use of BA.1/ancestral bivalent booster doses.

Two large multicentre European hospital networks have estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 since 2021.

We aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients ≥ 20 years, combining data from these networks during Alpha (March–June)- and Delta (June–December)-dominant periods, 2021.

Forty-six participating hospitals across 14 countries follow a similar generic protocol using the test-negative case–control design. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) as two doses of a two-dose or one of a single-dose vaccine ≥ 14 days before onset.

We included 1,087 cases (538 controls) and 1,669 cases (1,442 controls) in the Alpha- and Delta-dominant periods, respectively. During the Alpha period, VE against hospitalisation with SARS-CoV2 for complete Comirnaty PSV was 85% (95% CI: 69–92) overall and 75% (95% CI: 42–90) in those aged ≥ 80 years. During the Delta period, among SARI patients ≥ 20 years with symptom onset ≥ 150 days from last PSV dose, VE for complete Comirnaty PSV was 54% (95% CI: 18–74). Among those receiving Comirnaty PSV and mRNA booster (any product) ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose, VE was 91% (95% CI: 57–98). In time-since-vaccination analysis, complete all-product PSV VE was > 90% in those with their last dose < 90 days before onset; ≥ 70% in those 90–179 days before onset.

Our results from this EU multi-country hospital setting showed that VE for complete PSV alone was higher in the Alpha- than the Delta-dominant period, and addition of a first booster dose during the latter period increased VE to over 90%.

The NHS Test and Trace (NHSTT) programme was established in May 2020 in England to deliver SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing in order to identify infected individuals and reduce COVID-19 spread. To further control transmission, people identified as contacts were asked to self-isolate for 10 days and test only if they became symptomatic. From March 2021, eligibility criteria for PCR testing expanded to include asymptomatic contacts of confirmed cases.

To analyse testing patterns of contacts before and after the change in testing guidance in England to assess the impact on PCR testing behaviour with respect to symptom status and contact type.

Testing and contact tracing data were extracted from the national data systems and linked. Subsequently, descriptive statistical analysis was applied to identify trends in testing behaviour.

Between 1 January and 31 July 2021, over 5 million contacts were identified and reached by contact tracers; 42.3% took a PCR test around the time they were traced. Overall positivity rate was 44.3% and consistently higher in symptomatic (60–70%) than asymptomatic (around 20%, March–June) contacts. The proportion of tests taken by asymptomatic contacts increased over time, especially after the change in testing guidance. No link was observed between uptake of PCR tests and vaccination coverage. Fully vaccinated contacts showed lower positivity (23.8%) than those with one dose (37.2%) or unvaccinated (51.0%).

Almost 1 million asymptomatic contacts were tested for SARS-CoV-2, identifying 214,056 positive cases, demonstrating the value of offering PCR testing to this group.

The sensitivity and specificity of selected antigen detection rapid diagnostic tests (AG-RDTs) for SARS-CoV-2 were determined in the unvaccinated population when the Delta variant was circulating. Viral loads, dynamics, symptoms and tissue tropism differ between Omicron and Delta.

We aimed to compare AG-RDT sensitivity and specificity in selected subgroups during Omicron vs Delta circulation.

We retrospectively paired AG-RDT results with PCRs registered in Czechia’s Information System for Infectious Diseases from 1 to 25 December 2021 (Delta, n = 20,121) and 20 January to 24 February 2022 (Omicron, n = 47,104).

When confirmatory PCR was conducted on the same day as AG-RDT as a proxy for antigen testing close to peak viral load, the average sensitivity for Delta was 80.4% and for Omicron 81.4% (p < 0.05). Sensitivity in vaccinated individuals was lower for Omicron (OR = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–1.03), particularly in reinfections (OR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.75–0.92). Saliva AG-RDT sensitivity was below average for both Delta (74.4%) and Omicron (78.4%). Tests on the European Union Category A list had higher sensitivity than tests in Category B. The highest sensitivity for Omicron (88.5%) was recorded for patients with loss of smell or taste, however, these symptoms were almost 10-fold less common than for Delta. The sensitivity of AG-RDTs performed on initially asymptomatic individuals done 1, 2 or 3 days before a positive PCR test was consistently lower for Omicron compared with Delta.

Sensitivity for Omicron was lower in subgroups that may become more common if SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic virus.

Usutu virus (USUV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans are incidental dead-end hosts. In Europe, the virus was first detected in Italy in 1996; since then, it has spread to many European countries.

We aimed to report on the epidemiology, surveillance, diagnosis and prevention of USUV infection in humans, mosquitoes and other animals in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) from 2012 to 2021.

We collected information through a literature review, an online survey and an expert meeting.

Eight countries reported USUV infection in humans (105 cases, including 12* with neurological symptoms), 15 countries in birds and seven in mosquitoes. Infected animals were also found among pets, wild and zoo animals. Usutu virus was detected primarily in Culex pipiens but also in six other mosquito species. Detection of USUV infection in humans is notifiable only in Italy, where it is under surveillance since 2017 and now integrated with surveillance in animals in a One Health approach. Several countries include USUV infection in the differential diagnosis of viral encephalitis and arbovirus infections. Animal USUV infection is not notifiable in any EU/EEA country.

Human USUV infections, mainly asymptomatic and, less frequently, with a febrile illness or a neuroinvasive disease, have been reported in several EU/EEA countries, where the virus is endemic. Climate and environmental changes are expected to affect the epidemiology of USUV. A One Health approach could improve the monitoring of its evolution in Europe.

The COVID-19 pandemic was of major concern in Greenland. There was a high possibility of rapid transmission in settlements, and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality because of comorbidities in the population and limited access to specialised healthcare in remote areas.

To describe the epidemiology of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greenland and evaluate the effects of a strict COVID-19 strategy until risk groups were immunised.

We studied the epidemiology during March 2020 to June 2022. We describe the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and vaccination coverage with data from the registries of the Greenlandic health authority.

We found 21,419 confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants (54% female, 46% male), 342 per 100,000 were hospitalised and 16 per 100,000 were admitted to the intensive care unit. The COVID-19 mortality rate was 39 per 100,000, all those affected were aged above 65 years. No excess overall mortality was observed. The vaccination coverage by June 2022 was 71.67 and 41% for one, two and three doses, respectively.

SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Greenland was low, given strict restrictions until all eligible inhabitants had been offered immunisation. The main impact of the pandemic was from May 2021 onwards with increasing numbers of confirmed cases. This occurred after introduction of the vaccine programme, which may have had an influence on the severity of the associated morbidity and mortality experienced. Halting community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with NPIs until the majority of the population had been immunised was a successful strategy in Greenland.

In early 2020, the I-MOVE-COVID-19 hospital surveillance system was adapted from an existing influenza surveillance system to include hospitalised COVID-19 cases.

To describe trends in the demographic and clinical characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 cases across Europe during the first 2 years of the pandemic, and to identify associations between sex, age and chronic conditions with admission to intensive care or high dependency units (ICU/HDU) and in-hospital mortality.

We pooled pseudonymised data from all hospitalised COVID-19 cases in 11 surveillance sites in nine European countries, collected between 1 February 2020 and 31 December 2021. Associations between sex, age and chronic conditions, with ICU/HDU admission and in-hospital mortality were examined using Pearson’s chi-squared test, and crude odds ratio (OR) estimates with respective 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Of 25,971 hospitalised COVID-19 cases, 55% were male, 35% were 75 years or older and 90% had a chronic underlying condition. Patients with two or more chronic underlying conditions were significantly more likely to die in-hospital from COVID-19 (OR: 10.84; 95% CI: 8.30–14.16) than those without a chronic condition.

The surveillance demonstrated that males, those 75 years or older and those with chronic conditions were at greater risk of in-hospital death. Over the surveillance period, outcomes tended to improve, likely because of vaccinations. This surveillance has laid the groundwork for further research studies investigating the risk factors of hospitalised COVID-19 cases and vaccine effectiveness.

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater offers a near real-time tool to track circulation of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. However, individual measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage are noisy, inherently variable and can be left-censored.

We aimed to infer latent virus loads in a comprehensive sewage surveillance programme that includes all sewage treatment plants (STPs) in the Netherlands and covers 99.6% of the Dutch population.

We applied a multilevel Bayesian penalised spline model to estimate time- and STP-specific virus loads based on water flow-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR data for one to four sewage samples per week for each of the more than 300 STPs.

The model captured the epidemic upsurges and downturns in the Netherlands, despite substantial day-to-day variation in the measurements. Estimated STP virus loads varied by more than two orders of magnitude, from ca 10¹² virus particles per 100,000 persons per day in the epidemic trough in August 2020 to almost 10¹⁵ per 100,000 in many STPs in January 2022. The timing of epidemics at the local level was slightly shifted between STPs and municipalities, which resulted in less pronounced peaks and troughs at the national level.

Although substantial day-to-day variation is observed in virus load measurements, wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 that is performed at high sampling frequency can track long-term progression of an epidemic at a local scale in near real time.

Vaccines play a crucial role in the response to COVID-19 and their efficacy is thus of great importance.

To assess the robustness of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) trial results using the fragility index (FI) and fragility quotient (FQ) methodology.

We conducted a Cochrane and PRISMA-compliant systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID-19 VE trials published worldwide until 22 January 2023. We calculated the FI and FQ for all included studies and assessed their associations with selected trial characteristics using Wilcoxon rank sum tests and Kruskal–Wallis H tests. Spearman correlation coefficients and scatter plots were used to quantify the strength of correlation of FIs and FQs with trial characteristics.

Of 6,032 screened records, we included 40 trials with 54 primary outcomes, comprising 909,404 participants with a median sample size per outcome of 13,993 (interquartile range (IQR): 8,534–25,519). The median FI and FQ was 62 (IQR: 22–123) and 0.50% (IQR: 0.24–0.92), respectively. FIs were positively associated with sample size (p < 0.001), and FQs were positively associated with type of blinding (p = 0.023). The Spearman correlation coefficient for FI with sample size was moderately strong (0.607), and weakly positive for FI and FQ with VE (0.138 and 0.161, respectively).

This was the largest study on trial robustness to date. Robustness of COVID-19 VE trials increased with sample size and varied considerably across several other important trial characteristics. The FI and FQ are valuable complementary parameters for the interpretation of trial results and should be reported alongside established trial outcome measures.

Since 1996, epidemiological surveillance of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in Spain has been limited to seasonal influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and potential pandemic viruses. The COVID-19 pandemic provides opportunities to adapt existing systems for extended surveillance to capture a broader range of ARI.

To describe how the Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System of Castilla y León, Spain was rapidly adapted in 2020 to comprehensive sentinel surveillance for ARI, including influenza and COVID-19.

Using principles and methods of the health sentinel network, we integrated electronic medical record data from 68 basic surveillance units, covering 2.6% of the regional population between January 2020 to May 2022. We tested sentinel and non-sentinel samples sent weekly to the laboratory network for SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens. The moving epidemic method (MEM) was used to calculate epidemic thresholds.

ARI incidence was estimated at 18,942 cases per 100,000 in 2020/21 and 45,223 in 2021/22, with similar seasonal fold increases by type of respiratory disease. Incidence of influenza-like illness was negligible in 2020/21 but a 5-week epidemic was detected by MEM in 2021/22. Epidemic thresholds for ARI and COVID-19 were estimated at 459.4 and 191.3 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. More than 5,000 samples were tested against a panel of respiratory viruses in 2021/22.

Extracting data from electronic medical records reported by trained professionals, combined with a standardised microbiological information system, is a feasible and useful method to adapt influenza sentinel reports to comprehensive ARI surveillance in the post-COVID-19 era.

Following the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant spread, the use of unsupervised antigenic rapid diagnostic tests (self-tests) increased.

This study aimed to measure self-test uptake and factors associated with self-testing.

In this cross-sectional study from 20 January to 2 May 2022, the case series from a case–control study on factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were used to analyse self-testing habits in France. A multivariable quasi-Poisson regression was used to explore the variables associated with self-testing among symptomatic cases who were not contacts of another infected individual. The control series from the same study was used as a proxy for the self-test background rate in the non-infected population of France.

During the study period, 179,165 cases who tested positive through supervised tests were recruited. Of these, 64.7% had performed a self-test in the 3 days preceding this supervised test, of which 79,038 (68.2%) were positive. The most frequently reported reason for self-testing was the presence of symptoms (64.6%). Among symptomatic cases who were not aware of being contacts of another case, self-testing was positively associated with being female, higher education, household size, being a teacher and negatively associated with older age, not French by birth, healthcare-related work and immunosuppression. Among the control series, 12% self-tested during the 8 days preceding questionnaire filling, with temporal heterogeneity.

The analysis showed high self-test uptake in France with some inequalities which must be addressed through education and facilitated access (cost and availability) for making it a more efficient epidemic control tool.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, international shipping activity was disrupted as movement of people and goods was restricted. The Port of Rotterdam, the largest port in Europe, remained operational throughout.

We describe the burden of COVID-19 among crew on sea-going vessels at the port and recommend improvements in future infectious disease event notification and response at commercial ports.

Suspected COVID-19 cases on sea-going vessels were notified to port authorities and public health (PH) authorities pre-arrival via the Maritime Declaration of Health. We linked data from port and PH information systems between 1 January 2020 and 31 July 2021, derived a notification rate (NR) of COVID-19 events per arrival, and an attack rate (AR) per vessel (confirmed cases). We compared AR by vessel type (workship/tanker/cargo/passenger), during wildtype-, alpha- and delta-dominant calendar periods.

Eighty-four COVID-19 events were notified on ships, involving 622 cases. The NR among 45,030 new arrivals was 173 per 100,000 impacting 1% of vessels. Events per week peaked in April 2021 and again in July 2021, when the AR was also highest. Half of all cases were notified on workships, events occurring earlier and more frequently than on other vessels.

Notification of COVID-19 events on ships occurred infrequently, although case under-ascertainment was likely. Pre-agreed protocols for data-sharing between stakeholders locally and across Europe would facilitate more efficient pandemic response. Public health access to specimens for sequencing and environmental sampling would give greater insight into viral spread on ships.

To cope with the persistence of the COVID-19 epidemic and the decrease in antibody levels following vaccination, a third dose of vaccine has been recommended in the general population. However, several vaccine regimens had been used initially for the primary vaccination course, and the heterologous Vaxzevria/Comirnaty regimen had shown better efficacy and immunogenicity than the homologous Comirnaty/Comirnaty regimen.

We wanted to determine if this benefit was retained after a third dose of an mRNA vaccine.

We combined an observational epidemiological study of SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated healthcare workers at the University Hospital of Lyon, France, with a prospective cohort study to analyse immunological parameters before and after the third mRNA vaccine dose.

Following the second vaccine dose, heterologous vaccination regimens were more protective against infection than homologous regimens (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18–3.00; p = 0.008), but this was no longer the case after the third dose (adjusted HR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.72–1.02; p = 0.082). Receptor-binding domain-specific IgG levels and serum neutralisation capacity against different SARS-CoV-2 variants were higher after the third dose than after the second dose in the homologous regimen group, but not in the heterologous group.

The advantage conferred by heterologous vaccination was lost after the third dose in terms of both protection and immunogenicity. Immunological measurements 1 month after vaccination suggest that heterologous vaccination induces maximal immunity after the second dose, whereas the third dose is required to reach the same level in individuals with a homologous regimen.