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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
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51 - 100 of 393 results
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Limited transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools in Ireland during the 2020–2021 school year
BackgroundThe role of schools in SARS-CoV-2 transmission has been a debated topic since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
AimTo examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission in all schools in Ireland during the 2020–21 school year.
MethodsIn a national descriptive cross-sectional study, we investigated PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among students (aged < 20 years) and staff (aged ≥ 20 years) who attended school during their infectious period to identify school close contacts. SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results of all school close contacts were pooled to obtain an overall positivity rate and to stratify positivity rate by school setting and role (i.e. student or staff).
ResultsIn total, 100,474 individuals were tested as close contacts in 1,771 schools during the 2020–21 school year. An overall close contact positivity rate of 2.4% was observed across all schools (n = 2,373 secondary cases). The highest positivity rate was seen in special schools (3.4%), followed by primary (2.5%) and post-primary schools (1.8%) (p < 0.001). Of the close contacts identified, 90.5% (n = 90,953) were students and 9.5% (n = 9,521) were staff. Overall, students had a significantly higher positivity rate than staff (2.4% vs 1.8%, p < 0.001).
ConclusionThis study demonstrated that a low level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred in Irish schools during the 2020-21 academic year. In the event of future pandemics, and as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, there is a need to carefully weigh up the harms and benefits associated with disrupted education to mitigate infectious disease transmission before reflexively closing classes or schools.
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A methodological approach to intra-action reviews - application and adaptation of existing global guidance during the COVID-19 pandemic response in Ireland, 2021
Many countries were under-prepared for the arrival of an emergency such as the COVID-19 pandemic. An intra-action review allows countries, systems and services to reflect on their preparedness and response to date, and revise their policies and approaches as needed. We describe the approach to undertaking an intra-action review of Ireland’s Health Protection COVID-19 response during 2021. A project team within National Health Protection developed a project plan, identified key stakeholders, trained facilitators and designed workshop programmes, employing integrated collaborative web tools. Multidisciplinary representatives participated in three half-day, independently facilitated workshops on challenges and solutions within specific response areas: communication, governance and cross-cutting themes such as staff well-being. An all-stakeholder survey sought further in-depth detail. Participants reviewed the ongoing pandemic response in terms of good practice and challenges and recommended implementable solutions. We customised our mixed-methods approach using existing ECDC/WHO guidance, producing consensus recommendations during Ireland’s fourth wave of COVID-19, with particular focus on pathways to implementation. Our adaptations may help others in formulating and customising methodological approaches. During an emergency, identifying and reflecting on good practices to retain, and areas for strengthening, with a clear action plan of implementing recommendations, will enhance preparedness now, and for future emergencies.
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At-home sampling to meet geographical challenges for serological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in a rural region of northern Sweden, March to May 2021: a retrospective cohort study
Julia Wigren Byström , Linnea Vikström , Ebba Rosendal , Remigius Gröning , Yong-Dae Gwon , Emma Nilsson , Atin Sharma , Akbar Espaillat , Leo Hanke , Gerald McInerney , Andrea Puhar , Felipe Cava , Gunilla B Karlsson Hedestam , Therese Thunberg , Tor Monsen , Fredrik Elgh , Magnus Evander , Anders F Johansson , Anna K Överby , Clas Ahlm , Johan Normark and Mattias NE ForsellBackgroundThe current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted a need for easy and safe blood sampling in combination with accurate serological methodology. Venipuncture for testing is usually performed by trained staff at healthcare centres. Long travel distances to healthcare centres in rural regions may introduce a bias of testing towards relatively large communities with closer access. Rural regions are therefore often not represented in population-based data.
AimThe aim of this retrospective cohort study was to develop and implement a strategy for at-home testing in a rural region of Sweden during spring 2021, and to evaluate its role to provide equal health care for its inhabitants.
MethodsWe developed a sensitive method to measure antibodies to the S-protein of SARS-CoV-2 and optimised this assay for clinical use together with a strategy of at-home capillary blood sampling.
ResultsWe demonstrated that our ELISA gave comparable results after analysis of capillary blood or serum from SARS-CoV-2-experienced individuals. We demonstrated stability of the assay under conditions that reflected temperature and humidity during winter or summer. By assessment of capillary blood samples from 4,122 individuals, we could show both feasibility of the strategy and that implementation shifted the geographical spread of testing in favour of rural areas.
ConclusionImplementation of at-home sampling enabled citizens living in remote rural areas access to centralised and sensitive laboratory antibody tests. The strategy for testing used here could therefore enable disease control authorities to get rapid access to information concerning immunity to infectious diseases, even across vast geographical distance.
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Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time from prior infection: a cohort study, Reggio Emilia province, Italy, February 2020 to February 2022
BackgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of reinfections is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 control over a long period.
AimTo evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time after first infection.
MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all residents in the Reggio Emilia province on 31 December 2019, followed up until 28 February 2022 for SARS-CoV-2 first infection and reinfection after 90 days. Cox models were used to compare risk of first infection vs reinfection, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine doses and comorbidities.
ResultsThe cohort included 538,516 residents, 121,154 with first SARS-CoV-2 infections and 3,739 reinfections, most in the Omicron BA.1 period. In the pre-Omicron period, three doses of vaccine reduced risk of reinfection by 89% (95% CI: 87–90), prior infection reduced risk by 90% (95% CI: 88–91), while two doses and infection reduced risk by 98% (95% CI: 96–99). In the Omicron BA.1 period, protection estimates were 53% (95% CI: 52–55), 9% (95% CI: 4–14) and 76% (95% CI: 74–77). Before Omicron, protection from reinfection remained above 80% for up to 15 months; with Omicron BA.1, protection decreased from 71% (95% CI: 65–76) at 5 months to 21% (95% CI: 10–30) at 22 months from the first infection. Omicron BA.1 reinfections showed 48% (95% CI: 10–57) lower risk of severe disease than first infections.
ConclusionsNatural immunity acquired with previous variants showed low protection against Omicron BA.1. Combined vaccination and natural immunity seems to be more protective against reinfection than either alone. Vaccination of people with prior infection reduced the risk of severe disease.
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A new method for near real-time, nationwide surveillance of nosocomial COVID-19 in Norway: providing data at all levels of the healthcare system, March 2020 to March 2022
More LessBackgroundGreat efforts have been made to minimise spread and prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 in hospitals. However, there is uncertainty in identifying nosocomial vs community-acquired infections. To minimise risks and evaluate measures, timely data on infection risk in healthcare institutions are required.
AimsTo design an automated nationwide surveillance system for nosocomial COVID-19 using existing data to analyse the impact of community infection rates on nosocomial infections, to explore how changes in case definitions influence incidence and to identify patients and wards at highest risk and effects of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
MethodsWe used data from the Norwegian real-time emergency preparedness register (Beredt C19), which includes all patients nationwide admitted to Norwegian hospitals between March 2020 and March 2022 with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test during their hospital stay or within 7 days post-discharge. COVID-19 cases were assigned to categories depending on the time between admission and testing.
ResultsInfection rates for definite/probable nosocomial COVID-19 increased from 0.081% in year 1 to 0.50% in year 2 in hospital admissions 7 days or longer. Varying the definitions resulted in large changes in registered nosocomial infections. Infection rates were similar across different ward types. By 2022, 58% of patients with a definite/probable nosocomial infection had received three vaccine doses.
ConclusionAutomated national surveillance for nosocomial COVID-19 is possible based on existing data sources. Beredt C19 provided detailed information with only 5% missing data on hospitals/wards. Epidemiological definitions are possible to standardise, enabling easier comparison between regions and countries.
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Using an influenza surveillance system to estimate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Beijing, China, weeks 2 to 6 2023
Li Zhang , Yi Zhang , Wei Duan , Shuangsheng Wu , Ying Sun , Chunna Ma , Quanyi Wang , Daitao Zhang and Peng YangWith COVID-19 public health control measures downgraded in China in January 2023, reported COVID-19 case numbers may underestimate the true numbers after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave. Using a multiplier model based on our influenza surveillance system, we estimated that the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 392/100,000 population in Beijing during the 5 weeks following policy adjustment. No notable change occurred after the Spring Festival in early February. The multiplier model provides an opportunity for assessing the actual COVID-19 situation.
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Sequencing directly from antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests in Belgium, 2022: a gamechanger in genomic surveillance?
BackgroundLateral flow antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) for viral infections constitute a fast, cheap and reliable alternative to nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs). Whereas leftover material from NAATs can be employed for genomic analysis of positive samples, there is a paucity of information on whether viral genetic characterisation can be achieved from archived Ag-RDTs.
AimTo evaluate the possibility of retrieving leftover material of several viruses from a range of Ag-RDTs, for molecular genetic analysis.
MethodsArchived Ag-RDTs which had been stored for up to 3 months at room temperature were used to extract viral nucleic acids for subsequent RT-qPCR, Sanger sequencing and Nanopore whole genome sequencing. The effects of brands of Ag-RDT and of various ways to prepare Ag-RDT material were evaluated.
ResultsSARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids were successfully extracted and sequenced from nine different brands of Ag-RDTs for SARS-CoV-2, and for five of these, after storage for 3 months at room temperature. The approach also worked for Ag-RDTs for influenza virus (n = 3 brands), as well as for rotavirus and adenovirus 40/41 (n = 1 brand). The buffer of the Ag-RDT had an important influence on viral RNA yield from the test strip and the efficiency of subsequent sequencing.
ConclusionOur finding that the test strip in Ag-RDTs is suited to preserve viral genomic material, even for several months at room temperature, and therefore can serve as source material for genetic characterisation could help improve global coverage of genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 as well as for other viruses.
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Protection against severe COVID-19 after second booster dose of adapted bivalent (original/Omicron BA.4-5) mRNA vaccine in persons ≥ 60 years, by time since infection, Italy, 12 September to 11 December 2022
Massimo Fabiani , Alberto Mateo-Urdiales , Chiara Sacco , Emmanouil Alexandros Fotakis , Maria Cristina Rota , Daniele Petrone , Marco Bressi , Martina Del Manso , Andrea Siddu , Giorgio Fedele , Paola Stefanelli , Antonino Bella , Flavia Riccardo , Anna Teresa Palamara , Giovanni Rezza , Silvio Brusaferro , Patrizio Pezzotti and on behalf of the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 study group and of the Italian COVID-19 Vaccines Registry groupEffectiveness against severe COVID-19 of a second booster dose of the bivalent (original/BA.4–5) mRNA vaccine 7–90 days post-administration, relative to a first booster dose of an mRNA vaccine received ≥ 120 days earlier, was ca 60% both in persons ≥ 60 years never infected and in those infected > 6 months before. Relative effectiveness in those infected 4–6 months earlier indicated no significant additional protection (10%; 95% CI: −44 to 44). A second booster vaccination 6 months after the latest infection may be warranted.
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SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology in Slovenia, January to September 2021
BackgroundSequencing of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive samples was introduced in Slovenia in January 2021. Our surveillance programme comprised three complementary schemes: (A) non-targeted sequencing of at least 10% of samples, (B) sequencing of samples positive after PCR screening for variants of concern (VOC) and (C) sequencing as per epidemiological indication.
AimWe present the analysis of cumulative data of the non-targeted surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and variant-dependent growth kinetics for the five most common variants in Slovenia for the first 9 months of 2021.
MethodsSARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive samples, from January to September 2021, were selected for sequencing according to the national surveillance plan. Growth kinetics studies were done on Vero E6 cells.
ResultsAltogether 15,175 genomes were sequenced and 64 variants were detected, of which three successively prevailed. Variant B.1.258.17 was detected in ca 80% of samples in January and was replaced, within 9 weeks, by the Alpha variant. The number of cases decreased substantially during the summer of 2021. However, the introduction of the Delta variant caused a fourth wave and completely outcompeted other variants. Other VOC were only detected in small numbers. Infection of Vero E6 cells showed higher replication rates for the variants Alpha and Delta, compared with B.1.258.17, B.1.258, and B.1.1.70, which dominated in Slovenia before the introduction of the Alpha and Delta variants.
ConclusionInformation on SARS-CoV-2 variant diversity provided context to the epidemiological data of PCR-positive cases, contributed to control of the initial spread of known VOC and influenced epidemiological measures.
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Higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 infection than of BA.2 infection after previous BA.1 infection, the Netherlands, 2 May to 24 July 2022
BackgroundIn summer 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 became dominant in Europe. In vitro studies have shown a large reduction of antibody neutralisation for this variant.
AimWe aimed to investigate differences in protection from previous infection and/or vaccination against infection with Omicron BA.4/5 vs BA.2.
MethodsWe employed a case-only approach including positive PCR tests from community testing between 2 May and 24 July 2022 that were tested for S gene target failure (SGTF), which distinguishes BA.4/5 from BA.2 infection. Previous infections were categorised by variant using whole genome sequencing or SGTF. We estimated by logistic regression the association of SGTF with vaccination and/or previous infection, and of SGTF of the current infection with the variant of the previous infection, adjusting for testing week, age group and sex.
ResultsThe percentage of registered previous SARS-CoV-2 infections was higher among 19,836 persons infected with Omicron BA.4/5 than among 7,052 persons infected with BA.2 (31.3% vs 20.0%). Adjusting for testing week, age group and sex, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3–1.5). The distribution of vaccination status did not differ for BA.4/5 vs BA.2 infections (aOR = 1.1 for primary and booster vaccination). Among persons with a previous infection, those currently infected with BA4/5 had a shorter interval between infections, and the previous infection was more often caused by BA.1, compared with those currently infected with BA.2 (aOR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.5–2.6).
ConclusionOur results suggest immunity induced by BA.1 is less effective against BA.4/5 infection than against BA.2 infection.
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Minimising school disruption under high incidence conditions due to the Omicron variant in France, Switzerland, Italy, in January 2022
BackgroundAs record cases of Omicron variant were registered in Europe in early 2022, schools remained a vulnerable setting undergoing large disruption.
AimThrough mathematical modelling, we compared school protocols of reactive screening, regular screening, and reactive class closure implemented in France, in Baselland (Switzerland), and in Italy, respectively, and assessed them in terms of case prevention, testing resource demand, and schooldays lost.
MethodsWe used a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools accounting for within- and across-class contacts from empirical contact data. We parameterised it to the Omicron BA.1 variant to reproduce the French Omicron wave in January 2022. We simulated the three protocols to assess their costs and effectiveness for varying peak incidence rates in the range experienced by European countries.
ResultsWe estimated that at the high incidence rates registered in France during the Omicron BA.1 wave in January 2022, the reactive screening protocol applied in France required higher test resources compared with the weekly screening applied in Baselland (0.50 vs 0.45 tests per student-week), but achieved considerably lower control (8% vs 21% reduction of peak incidence). The reactive class closure implemented in Italy was predicted to be very costly, leading to > 20% student-days lost.
ConclusionsAt high incidence conditions, reactive screening protocols generate a large and unplanned demand in testing resources, for marginal control of school transmissions. Comparable or lower resources could be more efficiently used through weekly screening. Our findings can help define incidence levels triggering school protocols and optimise their cost-effectiveness.
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Risk reduction of hospitalisation and severe disease in vaccinated COVID-19 cases during the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron BA.1-predominant period, Navarre, Spain, January to March 2022
BackgroundAs COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection was lower for cases of the Omicron vs the Delta variant, understanding the effect of vaccination in reducing risk of hospitalisation and severe disease among COVID-19 cases is crucial.
AimTo evaluate risk reduction of hospitalisation and severe disease in vaccinated COVID-19 cases during the Omicron BA.1-predominant period in Navarre, Spain.
MethodsA case-to-case comparison included COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance data in adults ≥ 18 years from 3 January–20 March 2022. COVID-19 vaccination status was compared between hospitalised and non-hospitalised cases, and between severe (intensive care unit admission or death) and non-severe cases using logistic regression models.
ResultsAmong 58,952 COVID-19 cases, 565 (1.0%) were hospitalised and 156 (0.3%) were severe. The risk of hospitalisation was reduced within the first 6 months after full COVID-19 vaccination (complete primary series) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.06; 95% CI: 0.04–0.09) and after 6 months (aOR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.12–0.21; pcomparison < 0.001), as well as after a booster dose (aOR: 0.06: 95% CI: 0.04–0.07). Similarly, the risk of severe disease was reduced (aOR: 0.13, 0.18, and 0.06, respectively). Compared with cases fully vaccinated 6 months or more before a positive test, those who had received a booster dose had lower risk of hospitalisation (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.28–0.52) and severe disease (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21–0.68).
ConclusionsFull COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of hospitalisation and severe outcomes in COVID-19 cases with the Omicron variant, and a booster dose improved this effect in people aged over 65 years.
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Association of SARS-CoV-2 viral load distributions with individual demographics and suspected variant type: results from the Liverpool community testing pilot, England, 6 November 2020 to 8 September 2021
BackgroundThe PCR quantification cycle (Cq) is a proxy measure of the viral load of a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual.
AimTo investigate if Cq values vary according to different population characteristics, in particular demographic ones, and within the COVID-19 pandemic context, notably the SARS-CoV-2 type/variant individuals get infected with.
MethodsWe considered all positive PCR results from Cheshire and Merseyside, England, between 6 November 2020 and 8 September 2021. Cq distributions were inspected with Kernel density estimates. Multivariable quantile regression models assessed associations between people’s features and Cq.
ResultsWe report Cq values for 188,821 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals. Median Cqs increased with decreasing age for suspected wild-type virus and Alpha variant infections, but less so, if not, for Delta. For example, compared to 30–39-year-olds (median age group), 5–11-year-olds exhibited 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5 to 2.1), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.8 to 2.6) and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6 to 0.9) higher median Cqs for suspected wild-type, Alpha and Delta positives, respectively, in multivariable analysis. 12–18-year-olds also had higher Cqs for wild-type and Alpha positives, however, not for Delta. Overall, in univariable analysis, suspected Delta positives reported 2.8 lower median Cqs than wild-type positives (95% CI: 2.7 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Suspected Alpha positives had 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4 to 1.5; p < 0.001) lower median Cqs than wild type.
ConclusionsWild-type- or Alpha-infected school-aged children (5–11-year-olds) might transmit less than adults (> 18 years old), but have greater mixing exposures. Smaller differences in viral loads with age occurred in suspected Delta infections. Suspected-Alpha- or Delta-infections involved higher viral loads than wild type, suggesting increased transmission risk. COVID-19 control strategies should consider age and dominant variant.
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Low SARS-CoV-2 Cq values in healthcare workers with symptomatic COVID-19 infections, regardless of symptom severity, The Netherlands, January to August 2022
We analysed SARS-CoV-2 PCR Cq values from 3,183 healthcare workers who tested positive between January and August 2022. Median Cq values were lower in symptomatic than in asymptomatic HCW. The difference in Cq values between HCW with mild vs moderate/severe symptoms was statistically significant but negligibly small. To prevent nosocomial infections, all symptomatic HCW should be tested irrespective of symptom severity. This information can support decisions on testing and isolation, in the context of ongoing pressure on healthcare systems.
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Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study
Ruby SM Tsang , Mark Joy , Rachel Byford , Chris Robertson , Sneha N Anand , William Hinton , Nikhil Mayor , Debasish Kar , John Williams , William Victor , Ashley Akbari , Declan T Bradley , Siobhan Murphy , Dermot O’Reilly , Rhiannon K Owen , Antony Chuter , Jillian Beggs , Gary Howsam , Aziz Sheikh , FD Richard Hobbs and Simon de LusignanBackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.
AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.
MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.
ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3–7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91–0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94–0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00–1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28–1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97–1.78).
ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.
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COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022
BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.
AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.
MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.
ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10–20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.
ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.
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Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 positive passengers on flights from China to Italy, December 2022
Federica Novazzi , Emanuela Giombini , Martina Rueca , Andreina Baj , Lavinia Fabeni , Angelo Genoni , Francesca Drago Ferrante , Giulia Gramigna , Cesare Ernesto Maria Gruber , Sara Boutahar , Claudia Minosse , Ornella Butera , Renee Pasciuta , Daniele Focosi , Alberto Colombo , Andrea Antinori , Enrico Girardi , Francesco Vaia and Fabrizio MaggiWith numbers of COVID-19 cases having substantially increased at the end of 2022 in China, some countries have started or expanded testing and genomic surveillance of travellers. We report screening results in Italy in late December 2022 of 556 flight passengers in provenance from two Chinese provinces. Among these passengers, 126 (22.7%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive. Whole genome sequencing of 61 passengers’ positive samples revealed Omicron variants, notably sub-lineages BA.5.2.48, BF.7.14 and BQ.1.1, in line with data released from China.
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Detecting early signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020 in small areas by monitoring healthcare utilisation databases: first lessons learned from the Italian Alert_CoV project
Ivan Merlo , Mariano Crea , Paolo Berta , Francesca Ieva , Flavia Carle , Federico Rea , Gloria Porcu , Laura Savaré , Raul De Maio , Marco Villa , Danilo Cereda , Olivia Leoni , Francesco Bortolan , Giuseppe Maria Sechi , Antonino Bella , Patrizio Pezzotti , Silvio Brusaferro , Gian Carlo Blangiardo , Massimo Fedeli , Giovanni Corrao and on behalf of the Italian Alert_CoV Project groupBackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale diagnostic testing and contact tracing have proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of infections.
AimTo develop and retrospectively evaluate a system identifying aberrations in the use of selected healthcare services to timely detect COVID-19 outbreaks in small areas.
MethodsData were retrieved from the healthcare utilisation (HCU) databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. We identified eight services suggesting a respiratory infection (syndromic proxies). Count time series reporting the weekly occurrence of each proxy from 2015 to 2020 were generated considering small administrative areas (i.e. census units of Cremona and Mantua provinces). The ability to uncover aberrations during 2020 was tested for two algorithms: the improved Farrington algorithm and the generalised likelihood ratio-based procedure for negative binomial counts. To evaluate these algorithms’ performance in detecting outbreaks earlier than the standard surveillance, confirmed outbreaks, defined according to the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, were used as reference. Performances were assessed separately for the first and second semester of the year. Proxies positively impacting performance were identified.
ResultsWe estimated that 70% of outbreaks could be detected early using the proposed approach, with a corresponding false positive rate of ca 20%. Performance did not substantially differ either between algorithms or semesters. The best proxies included emergency calls for respiratory or infectious disease causes and emergency room visits.
ConclusionImplementing HCU-based monitoring systems in small areas deserves further investigations as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and other unknown infectious diseases in the future.
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COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Delta period, a nationwide study adjusting for chance of exposure, the Netherlands, July to December 2021
BackgroundDifferential SARS-CoV-2 exposure between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals may confound vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates.
AimWe conducted a test-negative case–control study to determine VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the presence of confounding by SARS-CoV-2 exposure.
MethodsWe included adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 at community facilities between 4 July and 8 December 2021 (circulation period of the Delta variant). The VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection after primary vaccination with an mRNA (Comirnaty or Spikevax) or vector-based vaccine (Vaxzevria or Janssen) was calculated using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and calendar week (Model 1). We additionally adjusted for comorbidity and education level (Model 2) and SARS-CoV-2 exposure (number of close contacts, visiting busy locations, household size, face mask wearing, contact with SARS-CoV-2 case; Model 3). We stratified by age, vaccine type and time since vaccination.
ResultsVE against infection (Model 3) was 64% (95% CI: 50–73), only slightly lower than in Models 1 (68%; 95% CI: 58–76) and 2 (67%; 95% CI: 56–75). Estimates stratified by age group, vaccine and time since vaccination remained similar: mRNA VE (Model 3) among people ≥ 50 years decreased significantly (p = 0.01) from 81% (95% CI: 66–91) at < 120 days to 61% (95% CI: 22–80) at ≥ 120 days after vaccination. It decreased from 83% to 59% in Model 1 and from 81% to 56% in Model 2.
ConclusionSARS-CoV-2 exposure did not majorly confound the estimated COVID-19 VE against infection, suggesting that VE can be estimated accurately using routinely collected data without exposure information.
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Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022
Paola Stefanelli , Filippo Trentini , Daniele Petrone , Alessia Mammone , Luigina Ambrosio , Mattia Manica , Giorgio Guzzetta , Valeria d'Andrea , Valentina Marziano , Agnese Zardini , Carla Molina Grane’ , Marco Ajelli , Angela Di Martino , Flavia Riccardo , Antonino Bella , Monica Sane Schepisi , Francesco Maraglino , Piero Poletti , Anna Teresa Palamara , Silvio Brusaferro , Giovanni Rezza , Patrizio Pezzotti , Stefano Merler , the Genomic SARS–CoV–2 National Surveillance Working Group and the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID–19 Study GroupBackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021.
AimTo comprehensively describe Omicron spread in Italy in the 2 subsequent months and its impact on the overall SARS-CoV-2 circulation at population level.
MethodsWe analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across the country between December 2021 and January 2022. Combining genomic sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by the National Integrated Surveillance System, the Omicron reproductive number and exponential growth rate are estimated, as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.
ResultsOmicron became dominant in Italy less than 1 month after its first detection, representing on 3 January 76.9–80.2% of notified SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a doubling time of 2.7–3.3 days. As of 17 January 2022, Delta variant represented < 6% of cases. During the Omicron expansion in December 2021, the estimated mean net reproduction numbers respectively rose from 1.15 to a maximum of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and from 1.14 to 1.36 for hospitalised cases, while remaining relatively stable, between 0.93 and 1.21, for cases needing intensive care. Despite a reduction in relative proportion, Delta infections increased in absolute terms throughout December contributing to an increase in hospitalisations. A significant reproduction numbers’ decline was found after mid-January, with average estimates dropping below 1 between 10 and 16 January 2022.
ConclusionEstimates suggest a marked growth advantage of Omicron compared with Delta variant, but lower disease severity at population level possibly due to residual immunity against severe outcomes acquired from vaccination and prior infection.
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A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021
BackgroundSince the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 and throughout 2021, European governments have relied on mathematical modelling to inform policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination.
AimWe present a scenario-based modelling analysis in the Netherlands during summer 2021, to inform whether to extend vaccination to adolescents (12–17-year-olds) and children (5–11-year-olds).
MethodsWe developed a deterministic, age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and compared modelled incidences of infections, hospital and intensive care admissions, and deaths per 100,000 people across vaccination scenarios, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.
ResultsOur model projections showed that, on average, upon the release of all non-pharmaceutical control measures on 1 November 2021, a large COVID-19 wave may occur in winter 2021/22, followed by a smaller, second wave in spring 2022, regardless of the vaccination scenario. The model projected reductions in infections/severe disease outcomes when vaccination was extended to adolescents and further reductions when vaccination was extended to all people over 5 years-old. When examining projected disease outcomes by age group, individuals benefitting most from extending vaccination were adolescents and children themselves. We also observed reductions in disease outcomes in older age groups, particularly of parent age (30–49 years), when children and adolescents were vaccinated, suggesting some prevention of onward transmission from younger to older age groups.
ConclusionsWhile our scenarios could not anticipate the emergence/consequences of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, we illustrate how our approach can assist decision making. This could be useful when considering to provide booster doses or intervening against future infection waves.
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Omicron BA.2.75 variant is efficiently neutralised following BA.1 and BA.5 breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals, Israel, June to September 2022
We evaluated neutralising antibody titres against wild type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 and four Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.2, BA.5 and BA.2.75) in fully vaccinated (three doses of Comirnaty vaccine) healthcare workers (HCW) in Israel who had breakthrough BA.1/BA5 infections. Omicron breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals resulted in increased neutralising antibodies against the WT and Omicron variants compared with vaccinated uninfected HCW. HCW who recovered from BA.1 or BA.5 infections showed similar neutralising antibodies levels against BA.2.75.
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External quality assessment of SARS-CoV-2 serology in European expert laboratories, April 2021
Ramona Mögling , Francesca Colavita , Johan Reimerink , Angeliki Melidou , Katrin Leitmeyer , Maria Keramarou , Daniele Lapa , Massimo Francalancia , Jean-Luc Murk , Ann Vossen , Fabrizio Carletti , Boris Hogema , Adam Meijer , Liesbet Deprez , Antonino di Caro , Concetta Castilletti and Chantal BEM ReuskenBackgroundCountries worldwide are focusing to mitigate the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by employing public health measures. Laboratories have a key role in the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Serology for SARS-CoV-2 is of critical importance to support diagnosis, define the epidemiological framework and evaluate immune responses to natural infection and vaccine administration.
AimThe aim of this study was the assessment of the actual capability among laboratories involved in sero-epidemiological studies on COVID-19 in EU/EEA and EU enlargement countries to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies through an external quality assessment (EQA) based on proficiency testing.
MethodsThe EQA panels were composed of eight different, pooled human serum samples (all collected in 2020 before the vaccine roll-out), addressing sensitivity and specificity of detection. The panels and two EU human SARS-CoV-2 serological standards were sent to 56 laboratories in 30 countries.
ResultsThe overall performance of laboratories within this EQA indicated a robust ability to establish past SARS-CoV-2 infections via detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with 53 of 55 laboratories using at least one test that characterised all EQA samples correctly. IgM-specific test methods provided most incorrect sample characterisations (24/208), while test methods detecting total immunoglobulin (0/119) and neutralising antibodies (2/230) performed the best. The semiquantitative assays used by the EQA participants also showed a robust performance in relation to the standards.
ConclusionOur EQA showed a high capability across European reference laboratories for reliable diagnostics for SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses. Serological tests that provide robust and reliable detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are available.
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Public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic through the lens of community organisations and networks in the Netherlands (2020–2021): five lessons for pandemic decision-making
BackgroundDuring the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, key persons who were formally or informally active in community organisations and networks, such as sports clubs or cultural, educational, day care and healthcare facilities, occupied a key position between governments and citizens. However, their experiences, the dilemmas they faced and the solutions they generated when implementing COVID-19 measures in their respective settings are understudied.
AimWe aimed to understand how key persons in different community organisations and networks experienced and responded to the COVID-19 measures in the Netherlands.
MethodsBetween October 2020 and December 2021, the Corona Behavioural Unit at the Dutch national public health institute, conducted qualitative research based on narratives derived from 65 in-depth interviews with 95 key persons from 32 organisations and networks in eight different sectors.
ResultsFirstly, key persons enhanced adherence and supported the resilience and well-being of people involved in their settings. Secondly, adherence was negatively affected where COVID-19 measures conflicted with important organisational goals and values. Thirdly, small changes and ambiguities in COVID-19 policy had substantial consequences, depending on the context. Fourthly, problem-solving was achieved through trial-and-error, peer support, co-creation and transparent communication. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic and measures highlighted inequalities in access to resources.
ConclusionPandemic preparedness requires organisational and community preparedness and a multidisciplinary public health approach. Structural engagement of governments with key persons in community organisations and networks is key to enhance public trust and adherence to pandemic measures and contributes to health equity and the well-being of the people involved.
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Non-pharmaceutical interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 30 European countries: the ECDC–JRC Response Measures Database
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries implemented a wide set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), sometimes with limited knowledge on their effect and impact on population. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) developed a Response Measures Database (ECDC–JRC RMD) to archive NPIs in 30 EU/EEA countries from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2022. We aimed to introduce a tool for the wider scientific community to assess COVID-19 NPIs effect and impact in the EU/EEA. We give an overview of the ECDC–JRC RMD rationale and structure, including a brief analysis of the main NPIs applied in 2020, before the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. The ECDC–JRC RMD organises NPIs through a three-level hierarchical structure and uses four additional parameters (‘status’, ‘implementation’, ‘target group’ and ‘geographical representation’) to provide further information on the implementation of each measure. Features including the ready-for-analysis, downloadable format and its agile taxonomy and structure highlight the potential of the ECDC–JRC RMD to facilitate further NPI analysis and optimise decision making on public health response policies.
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Exploring behavioural factors influencing COVID-19-specific infection prevention and control measures in Finland: a mixed-methods study, December 2020 to March 2021
More LessBackgroundCompliance with infection prevention and control (IPC) measures is critical to preventing COVID-19 transmission in healthcare settings.
AimTo identify and explain factors influencing compliance with COVID-19-specific IPC measures among healthcare workers (HCWs) in long-term care facilities (LTCF) in Finland.
MethodsThe study included a web-based survey and qualitative study based on the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). The link to the anonymous survey was distributed via email to LTCFs through regional IPC experts in December 2020. Outcome was modelled using ordinary logistic regression and penalised ridge logistic regression using regrouped explanatory variables and an original, more correlated set of explanatory variables, respectively. In-depth interviews were conducted among survey participants who volunteered during January–March 2021. Data were analysed thematically using qualitative data analysis software (NVIVO12).
ResultsA total of 422 HCWs from 17/20 regions responded to the survey. Three TDF domains were identified that negatively influenced IPC compliance: environmental context and resources, reinforcement and beliefs about capabilities. Twenty HCWs participated in interviews, which resulted in identification of several themes: changes in professional duties and lack of staff planning for emergencies (domain: environmental context and resources); management culture and physical absence of management (domain: reinforcement), knowledge of applying IPC measures, nature of tasks and infrastructure that supports implementation (domain: beliefs about capabilities), that explained how the domains negatively influenced their IPC behaviour.
ConclusionsThis study provides insights into behavioural domains that can be used in developing evidence-based behaviour change interventions to support HCW compliance with pandemic-specific IPC measures in LTCFs.
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SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG titres up to 137 days following Comirnaty mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, Israel, February to May 2021
BackgroundData regarding the long-term protection afforded by vaccination for the SARS-CoV-2 infection are essential for allocation of scarce vaccination resources worldwide.
MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study aimed at studying the kinetics of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19-naïve patients fully vaccinated with two doses of Comirnaty mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of antibody levels were reported. Linear models were used to assess antibody levels after full vaccination and their decline over time.
ResultsThe study included 4,740 patients and 5,719 serological tests. Unadjusted GMCs peaked 28–41 days after the first dose at 10,174 AU/mL (95% CI: 9,211–11,237) and gradually decreased but remained well above the positivity cut-off. After adjusting for baseline characteristics and repeated measurements, the antibodies half-life time was 34.1 days (95% CI: 33.1–35.2), and females aged 16–39 years with no comorbidities had antibody levels of 20,613 AU/mL (95% CI: 18,526–22,934) on day 28 post-first-dose. Antibody levels were lower among males (0.736 of the level measured in females; 95% CI: 0.672–0.806), people aged 40–59 (0.729; 95% CI: 0.649–0.818) and ≥ 60 years (0.452; 95% CI: 0.398–0.513), and patients having haematological (0.241; 95% CI: 0.190–0.306) or solid malignancies (0.757; 95% CI: 0.650–0.881), chronic kidney disease with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥ 30 (0.434; 95% CI: 0.354–0.532) or with GFR < 30 mL/min (0.176; 95% CI: 0.109–0.287), and immunosuppression (0.273; 95% CI: 0.235–0.317). Body mass index, cardiovascular disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes and inflammatory bowel diseases were not associated with antibody levels.
ConclusionsVaccination with two doses resulted in persistently high levels of antibodies (≥ cut-off of 50 AU/mL) up to 137 days post-first-dose. Risk factors for lower antibody levels were identified.
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Can high COVID-19 vaccination rates in adults help protect unvaccinated children? Evidence from a unique mass vaccination campaign, Schwaz/Austria, March 2021
More LessBackgroundAfter an outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Beta variant in the district of Schwaz/Austria, vaccination with Comirnaty vaccine (BNT162b2 mRNA, BioNTech-Pfizer) had been offered to all adult inhabitants (≥ 16 years) in March 2021. This made Schwaz one of the most vaccinated regions in Europe at that time (70% of the adult population took up the offer). In contrast, all other Austrian districts remained with low vaccine coverage.
AimWe studied whether this rapid mass vaccination campaign provided indirect protection to unvaccinated individuals such as children (< 16 years) living in the same district.
MethodsTo study the effect of the campaign we used two complementary approaches. We compared infection rates among the population of children (< 16 years) in Schwaz with (i) the child population from similar districts (using the synthetic control method), and (ii) with the child population from municipalities along the border of Schwaz not included in the campaign (using an event study approach).
ResultsBefore the campaign, we observed very similar infection spread across the cohort of children in Schwaz and the control regions. After the campaign, we found a significant reduction of new cases among children of −64.5% (95%-CI: −82.0 to −30.2%) relative to adjacent border municipalities (using the event study model). Employing the synthetic control method, we observed a significant reduction of −42.8% in the same cohort.
ConclusionOur results constitute novel evidence of an indirect protection effect from a group of vaccinated individuals to an unvaccinated group.
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Comparing immunogenicity and efficacy of two different mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines as a fourth dose; six-month follow-up, Israel, 27 December 2021 to 24 July 2022
We assess the immunogenicity and efficacy of Spikevax and Comirnaty as fourth dose COVID-19 vaccines. Six months post-fourth-dose, IgG levels were higher than pre-fourth dose at 1.58-fold (95% CI: 1.27–1.97) in Spikevax and 1.16-fold (95% CI: 0.98–1.37) in Comirnaty vaccinees. Nearly 60% (159/274) of vaccinees contracted SARS-CoV-2. Infection hazard ratios (HRs) for Spikevax (0.82; 95% CI: 0.62–1.09) and Comirnaty (0.86; 95% CI: 0.65–1.13) vaccinees were similar, as were substantial-disease HRs, i.e. 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13–0.62) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.27–0.96), respectively.
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Age-specific associations between underlying health conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among confirmed COVID-19 cases: a multi-country study based on surveillance data, June to December 2020
Tjede Funk , Francesco Innocenti , Joana Gomes Dias , Lina Nerlander , Tanya Melillo , Charmaine Gauci , Jackie M Melillo , Patrik Lenz , Helena Sebestova , Pavel Slezak , Iva Vlckova , Jacob Dag Berild , Camilla Mauroy , Elina Seppälä , Ragnhild Tønnessen , Anne Vergison , Joël Mossong , Silvana Masi , Laetitia Huiart , Gillian Cullen , Niamh Murphy , Lois O’Connor , Joan O’Donnell , Piers Mook , Richard G Pebody and Nick BundleBackgroundUnderlying conditions are risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes but evidence is limited about how risks differ with age.
AimWe sought to estimate age-specific associations between underlying conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among COVID-19 cases.
MethodsWe analysed case-based COVID-19 data submitted to The European Surveillance System between 2 June and 13 December 2020 by nine European countries. Eleven underlying conditions among cases with only one condition and the number of underlying conditions among multimorbid cases were used as exposures. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using 39 different age-adjusted and age-interaction multivariable logistic regression models, with marginal means from the latter used to estimate probabilities of severe outcome for each condition–age group combination.
ResultsCancer, cardiac disorder, diabetes, immunodeficiency, kidney, liver and lung disease, neurological disorders and obesity were associated with elevated risk (aOR: 1.5–5.6) of hospitalisation and death, after controlling for age, sex, reporting period and country. As age increased, age-specific aOR were lower and predicted probabilities higher. However, for some conditions, predicted probabilities were at least as high in younger individuals with the condition as in older cases without it. In multimorbid patients, the aOR for severe disease increased with number of conditions for all outcomes and in all age groups.
ConclusionWhile supporting age-based vaccine roll-out, our findings could inform a more nuanced, age- and condition-specific approach to vaccine prioritisation. This is relevant as countries consider vaccination of younger people, boosters and dosing intervals in response to vaccine escape variants.
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Epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in the French overseas department Mayotte, 2020 to 2021
Marion Subiros , Charlotte Robert De Latour , Fanny Parenton , Ibtissame Soulaimana , Youssouf Hassani , Renaud Blondé , François Pousset , Yvonnick Boué , Camille Estagnasie , Gonzague Martin-Lecamp , Abdoulahy Diallo , Lucas Balloy , Mohamadou Niang , Christophe Caralp , Aurélie Cann , Abdourahim Chamouine , Alice Miquel , Geneviève Dennetière , Julie Durand , Maxime Jean , Sophie Olivier , Louis Collet , Nicole Tayeb and Patrice CombeBackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, national and local measures were implemented on the island of Mayotte, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean with critical socioeconomic and health indicators.
AimWe aimed to describe the COVID-19 outbreak in Mayotte from March 2020 to March 2021, with two waves from 9 March to 31 December 2020 and from 1 January to 14 March 2021, linked to Beta (20H/501Y.V2) variant.
MethodsTo understand and assess the dynamic and the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Mayotte, surveillance and investigation/contact tracing systems were set up including virological, epidemiological, hospitalisation and mortality indicators.
ResultsIn total, 18,131 cases were laboratory confirmed, with PCR or RAT. During the first wave, incidence rate (IR) peaked in week 19 2020 (133/100,000). New hospitalisations peaked in week 20 (54 patients, including seven to ICU). Testing rate increased tenfold during the second wave. Between mid-December 2020 and mid-January 2021, IR doubled (851/100,000 in week 5 2021) and positivity rate tripled (28% in week 6 2021). SARS-CoV-2 Beta variant (Pangolin B.1.351) was detected in more than 80% of positive samples. Hospital admissions peaked in week 6 2021 with 225 patients, including 30 to ICU.
ConclusionThis massive second wave could be linked to the high transmissibility of the Beta variant. The increase in the number of cases has naturally led to a higher number of severe cases and an overburdening of the hospital. This study shows the value of a real-time epidemiological surveillance for better understanding crisis situations.
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Recording of ’COVID-19 vaccine declined‘: a cohort study on 57.9 million National Health Service patients’ records in situ using OpenSAFELY, England, 8 December 2020 to 25 May 2021
Helen J Curtis , Peter Inglesby , Brian MacKenna , Richard Croker , William J Hulme , Christopher T Rentsch , Krishnan Bhaskaran , Rohini Mathur , Caroline E Morton , Sebastian CJ Bacon , Rebecca M Smith , David Evans , Amir Mehrkar , Laurie Tomlinson , Alex J Walker , Christopher Bates , George Hickman , Tom Ward , Jessica Morley , Jonathan Cockburn , Simon Davy , Elizabeth J Williamson , Rosalind M Eggo , John Parry , Frank Hester , Sam Harper , Shaun O’Hanlon , Alex Eavis , Richard Jarvis , Dima Avramov , Paul Griffiths , Aaron Fowles , Nasreen Parkes , Stephen JW Evans , Ian J Douglas , Liam Smeeth and Ben GoldacreBackgroundPriority patients in England were offered COVID-19 vaccination by mid-April 2021. Codes in clinical record systems can denote the vaccine being declined.
AimWe describe records of COVID-19 vaccines being declined, according to clinical and demographic factors.
MethodsWith the approval of NHS England, we conducted a retrospective cohort study between 8 December 2020 and 25 May 2021 with primary care records for 57.9 million patients using OpenSAFELY, a secure health analytics platform. COVID-19 vaccination priority patients were those aged ≥ 50 years or ≥ 16 years clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) or ’at risk’. We describe the proportion recorded as declining vaccination for each group and stratified by clinical and demographic subgroups, subsequent vaccination and distribution of clinical code usage across general practices.
ResultsOf 24.5 million priority patients, 663,033 (2.7%) had a decline recorded, while 2,155,076 (8.8%) had neither a vaccine nor decline recorded. Those recorded as declining, who were subsequently vaccinated (n = 125,587; 18.9%) were overrepresented in the South Asian population (32.3% vs 22.8% for other ethnicities aged ≥ 65 years). The proportion of declining unvaccinated patients was highest in CEV (3.3%), varied strongly with ethnicity (black 15.3%, South Asian 5.6%, white 1.5% for ≥ 80 years) and correlated positively with increasing deprivation.
ConclusionsClinical codes indicative of COVID-19 vaccinations being declined are commonly used in England, but substantially more common among black and South Asian people, and in more deprived areas. Qualitative research is needed to determine typical reasons for recorded declines, including to what extent they reflect patients actively declining.
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Role of population and test characteristics in antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, Czechia, August to November 2021
More LessBackgroundAnalyses of diagnostic performance of SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic tests (AG-RDTs) based on long-term data, population subgroups and many AG-RDT types are scarce.
AimWe aimed to analyse sensitivity and specificity of AG-RDTs for subgroups based on age, incidence, sample type, reason for test, symptoms, vaccination status and the AG-RDT’s presence on approved lists.
MethodsWe included AG-RDT results registered in Czechia’s Information System for Infectious Diseases between August and November 2021. Subpopulations were analysed based on 346,000 test results for which a confirmatory PCR test was recorded ≤ 3 days after the AG-RDT; 38 AG-RDTs with more than 100 PCR-positive and 300 PCR-negative samples were individually evaluated.
ResultsAverage sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% and 96.7%, respectively. We recorded lower sensitivity for age groups 0–12 (65.5%) and 13–18 years (65.3%). The sensitivity level rose with increasing SARS-CoV-2 incidence from 66.0% to 76.7%. Nasopharyngeal samples had the highest sensitivity and saliva the lowest. Sensitivity for preventive reasons was 63.6% vs 86.1% when testing for suspected infection. Sensitivity was 84.8% when one or more symptoms were reported compared with 57.1% for no symptoms. Vaccination was associated with a 4.2% higher sensitivity. Significantly higher sensitivity levels pertained to AG-RDTs on the World Health Organization Emergency Use List (WHO EUL), European Union Common List and the list of the United Kingdom’s Department of Health and Social Care.
ConclusionAG-RDTs from approved lists should be considered, especially in situations associated with lower viral load. Results are limited to SARS-CoV-2 delta variant.
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Seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and risk of COVID-19 in Navarre, Spain, May to July 2022
In Navarre, Spain, in May 2022, the seroprevalence of anti-nucleocapsid (N) and anti-spike (S) antibodies of SARS-CoV-2 was 58.9% and 92.7%, respectively. The incidence of confirmed COVID-19 thereafter through July was lower in people with anti-N antibodies (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.13) but not with anti-S antibodies (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.47–2.38). Hybrid immunity, including anti-N antibodies induced by natural exposure to SARS-CoV-2, seems essential in preventing Omicron COVID-19 cases.
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SARS-CoV-2 infection in households with and without young children: Nationwide cohort study, Denmark, 27 February 2020 to 26 February 2021
More LessBackgroundInfections with seasonally spreading coronaviruses are common among young children during winter months in the northern hemisphere; the immunological response lasts around a year. However, it is not clear if living with young children changes the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults.
AimOur aim was to investigate the association between living in a household with younger children and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalisation.
MethodsIn a nationwide cohort study, we followed all adults in Denmark aged 18 to 60 years from 27 February 2020 to 26 February 2021. Hazard ratios of SARS-CoV-2 infection by number of 10 months to 5 year-old children in the household were estimated using Cox regression adjusted for adult age, sex and other potential confounders. In a sensitivity analysis, we investigated the effect of the children's age.
ResultsAmong 450,007 adults living in households with young children, 19,555 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, while among 2,628,500 adults without young children in their household, 110,069 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08–1.12). Among adults with young children, 620 were hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, while 4,002 adults without children were hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (aHR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.88–1.08). Sensitivity analyses found that an increasing number of younger children substantially increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection but not hospitalisation.
ConclusionLiving in a household with young children was associated with a small increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Functional immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population after a booster campaign and the Delta and Omicron waves, Switzerland, March 2022
Functional immunity (defined here as serum neutralising capacity) critically contributes to conferring protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19. This cross-sectional analysis of a prospective, population-based cohort study included 1,894 randomly-selected 16 to 99-year-old participants from two Swiss cantons in March 2022. Of these, 97.6% (95% CI: 96.8–98.2%) had anti-spike IgG antibodies, and neutralising capacity was respectively observed for 94%, 92% and 88% against wild-type SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron variants. Studying functional immunity to inform and monitor vaccination campaigns is crucial.
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COVID-19 vaccination and BA.1 breakthrough infection induce neutralising antibodies which are less efficient against BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, Israel, March to June 2022
This work evaluated neutralising antibody titres against wild type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 and four Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5) in healthcare workers who had breakthrough BA.1 infection. Omicron breakthrough infection in individuals vaccinated three or four times before infection resulted in increased neutralising antibodies against the WT virus. The fourth vaccine dose did not further improve the neutralising efficiency over the third dose against all Omicron variants, especially BA.4 and BA.5. An Omicron-specific vaccine may be indicated.
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Estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 65 years using electronic health registries; a pilot study in four EU/EEA countries, October 2021 to March 2022
Alexis Sentís , Irina Kislaya , Nathalie Nicolay , Hinta Meijerink , Jostein Starrfelt , Iván Martínez-Baz , Jesús Castilla , Katrine Finderup Nielsen , Christian Holm Hansen , Hanne-Dorthe Emborg , Anthony Nardone , Tarik Derrough , Marta Valenciano , Baltazar Nunes , Susana Monge and the VEBIS-Lot4 working groupBy employing a common protocol and data from electronic health registries in Denmark, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalisation due to COVID-19 in individuals aged ≥ 65 years old, without previous documented infection, between October 2021 and March 2022. VE was higher in 65–79-year-olds compared with ≥ 80-year-olds and in those who received a booster compared with those who were primary vaccinated. VE remained high (ca 80%) between ≥ 12 and < 24 weeks after the first booster administration, and after Omicron became dominant.
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Impact of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions applied during the second and third COVID-19 epidemic waves in Portugal, 9 November 2020 to 10 February 2021: an ecological study
BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
AimTo evaluate the impact of tiered NPIs and a nationwide lockdown on reduction of COVID-19 incidence during the second and third epidemic waves in Portugal.
MethodsSurveillance data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to conduct an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in daily incidence during a second wave tiered NPI period (9 November–18 December 2020), and a third wave lockdown period without (15–21 January 2021) and with school closure (22 January–10 February 2021).
ResultsSignificant changes in trends were observed for the overall incidence rate; declining trends were observed for tiered NPIs (−1.9% per day; incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.981; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.973–0.989) and a lockdown period without (−3.4% per day; IRR: 0.966; 95% CI: 0.935–0.998) and with school closure (−10.3% per day, IRR: 0.897; 95% CI: 0.846–0.951). Absolute effects associated with tiered NPIs and a lockdown on a subsequent 14-day period yielded 137 cases and 437 cases per 100,000 population potentially averted, respectively.
ConclusionOur results indicate that tiered NPIs implemented during the second wave caused a decline in COVID-19 incidence, although modest. Moreover, a third wave lockdown without school closure was effective in reducing COVID-19 incidence, but the addition of school closure provided the strongest effect. These findings emphasise the importance of early and assertive decision-making to control the pandemic.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 both show similarly reduced disease severity of COVID-19 compared to Delta, Germany, 2021 to 2022
German national surveillance data analysis shows that hospitalisation odds associated with Omicron lineage BA.1 or BA.2 infections are up to 80% lower than with Delta infection, primarily in ≥ 35-year-olds. Hospitalised vaccinated Omicron cases’ proportions (2.3% for both lineages) seemed lower than those of the unvaccinated (4.4% for both lineages). Independent of vaccination status, the hospitalisation frequency among cases with Delta seemed nearly threefold higher (8.3%) than with Omicron (3.0% for both lineages), suggesting that Omicron inherently causes less severe disease.
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Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in young children attending day-care centres in Belgium, May 2020 to February 2022
Liesbet Van Heirstraeten , Esra Ekinci , Mathias Smet , Matilda Berkell , Laura Willen , Jasmine Coppens , An Spiessens , Basil Britto Xavier , Christine Lammens , Jan Verhaegen , Pierre Van Damme , Herman Goossens , Philippe Beutels , Veerle Matheeussen , Stefanie Desmet , Heidi Theeten and Surbhi Malhotra-KumarPresence of SARS-CoV-2 was monitored in nasopharyngeal samples from young children aged 6−30 months attending day-care centres (DCCs) in Belgium from May 2020−February 2022. SARS-CoV-2 carriage among DCC children was only detected from November 2021, after emergence of Delta and Omicron variants, in 9 of the 42 DCCs screened. In only one DCC, two children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the same sampling time point, suggesting limited transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgian DCCs among young children during the studied period.
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Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021
Esther Kissling , Mariëtte Hooiveld , Iván Martínez-Baz , Clara Mazagatos , Naoma William , Ana-Maria Vilcu , Marjolein N Kooijman , Maja Ilić , Lisa Domegan , Ausenda Machado , Simon de Lusignan , Mihaela Lazar , Adam Meijer , Mia Brytting , Itziar Casado , Amparo Larrauri , Josephine-L K Murray , Sylvie Behillil , Brechje de Gier , Ivan Mlinarić , Joan O’Donnell , Ana Paula Rodrigues , Ruby Tsang , Olivia Timnea , Marit de Lange , Maximilian Riess , Jesús Castilla , Francisco Pozo , Mark Hamilton , Alessandra Falchi , Mirjam J Knol , Sanja Kurečić Filipović , Linda Dunford , Raquel Guiomar , Jade Cogdale , Carmen Cherciu , Tessa Jansen , Theresa Enkirch , Luca Basile , Jeff Connell , Verónica Gomez , Virginia Sandonis Martín , Sabrina Bacci , Angela MC Rose , Lucia Pastore Celentano , Marta Valenciano and I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC primary care study teamsIntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.
AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.
MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.
ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69–79), 76% (95% CI: 71–80), 63% (95% CI: 48–75) and 63% (95% CI: 16–83) among those aged 30–44, 45–59, 60–74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30–59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75–81), 66% (95% CI: 58–73), 91% (95% CI: 87–94) and 52% (95% CI: 40–61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52–77), 65% (95% CI: 48–76) and 83% (95% CI: 64–92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30–59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83–89) at 14–29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56–71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.
ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.
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Investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, March to April 2020: a retrospective cohort study
Franck de Laval , Hervé Chaudet , Olivier Gorgé , Joffrey Marchi , Constance Lacrosse , Aissata Dia , Vanessa Marbac , Bakridine Mmadi Mrenda , Gaëtan Texier , Flavie Letois , Charles Chapus , Véronique Sarilar , Jean-Nicolas Tournier , Anthony Levasseur , Jacques Cobola , Flora Nolent , Fabien Dutasta , Frédéric Janvier , PA-CDG COVID-19 investigation group , Jean-Baptiste Meynard and Vincent Pommier de SantiBackgroundSARS-CoV-2 emergence was a threat for armed forces. A COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle from mid-March to mid-April 2020.
AimTo understand how the virus was introduced, circulated then stopped circulation, risk factors for infection and severity, and effectiveness of preventive measures.
MethodsWe considered the entire crew as a cohort and collected personal, clinical, biological, and epidemiological data. We performed viral genome sequencing and searched for SARS-CoV-2 in the environment.
ResultsThe attack rate was 65% (1,148/1,767); 1,568 (89%) were included. The male:female ratio was 6.9, and median age was 29 years (IQR: 24–36). We examined four clinical profiles: asymptomatic (13.0%), non-specific symptomatic (8.1%), specific symptomatic (76.3%), and severe (i.e. requiring oxygen therapy, 2.6%). Active smoking was not associated with severe COVID-19; age and obesity were risk factors. The instantaneous reproduction rate (Rt) and viral sequencing suggested several introductions of the virus with 4 of 5 introduced strains from within France, with an acceleration of Rt when lifting preventive measures. Physical distancing prevented infection (adjusted OR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). Transmission may have stopped when the proportion of infected personnel was large enough to prevent circulation (65%; 95% CI: 62–68).
ConclusionNon-specific clinical pictures of COVID-19 delayed detection of the outbreak. The lack of an isolation ward made it difficult to manage transmission; the outbreak spread until a protective threshold was reached. Physical distancing was effective when applied. Early surveillance with adapted prevention measures should prevent such an outbreak.
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Assessment of mortality and hospital admissions associated with confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant: a matched cohort and time-to-event analysis, England, October to December 2020
Gavin Dabrera , Hester Allen , Asad Zaidi , Joe Flannagan , Katherine Twohig , Simon Thelwall , Elizabeth Marchant , Nurin Abdul Aziz , Theresa Lamagni , Richard Myers , André Charlett , Fernando Capelastegui , Dimple Chudasama , Tom Clare , Flavien Coukan , Mary Sinnathamby , Neil Ferguson , Susan Hopkins , Meera Chand , Russell Hope , Meaghan Kall and on behalf of the COG-UK ConsortiumBackgroundThe emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in England coincided with a rapid increase in the number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas where the variant was concentrated.
AimOur aim was to assess whether infection with Alpha was associated with more severe clinical outcomes than the wild type.
MethodsLaboratory-confirmed infections with genomically sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and wild type between October and December 2020 were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. We conducted two statistical analyses to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of testing between Alpha and wild-type infections: a matched cohort study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed differences in disease severity by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death.
ResultsOf 63,609 COVID-19 cases sequenced in England between October and December 2020, 6,038 had the Alpha variant. In the matched cohort analysis, we matched 2,821 cases with Alpha to 2,821 to cases with wild type. In the time-to-event analysis, we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with Alpha compared with wild type, but no significant difference in the risk of mortality.
ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increased infection severity associated with the Alpha variant. Rapid assessments of the relative morbidity in terms of clinical outcomes and mortality associated with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants compared with dominant variants are required to assess overall impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.
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Hospitalised patients with breakthrough COVID-19 following vaccination during two distinct waves in Israel, January to August 2021: a multicentre comparative cohort study
Tal Brosh-Nissimov , Yasmin Maor , Meital Elbaz , Shelly Lipman-Arens , Yonit Wiener-Well , Khetam Hussein , Efrat Orenbuch-Harroch , Regev Cohen , Oren Zimhony , Bibiana Chazan , Lior Nesher , Galia Rahav , Hiba Zayyad , Mirit Hershman-Sarafov , Miriam Weinberger , Ronza Najjar-Debbiny and Michal ChowersBackgroundChanging patterns of vaccine breakthrough can clarify vaccine effectiveness.
AimTo compare breakthrough infections during a SARS-CoV-2 Delta wave vs unvaccinated inpatients, and an earlier Alpha wave.
MethodsIn an observational multicentre cohort study in Israel, hospitalised COVID-19 patients were divided into three cohorts: breakthrough infections in Comirnaty-vaccinated patients (VD; Jun–Aug 2021) and unvaccinated cases during the Delta wave (ND) and breakthrough infections during an earlier Alpha wave (VA; Jan–Apr 2021). Primary outcome was death or ventilation.
ResultsWe included 343 VD, 162 ND and 172 VA patients. VD were more likely older (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.05–1.08), men (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0–2.5) and immunosuppressed (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.1–5.5) vs ND. Median time between second vaccine dose and admission was 179 days (IQR: 166–187) in VD vs 41 days (IQR: 28–57.5) in VA. VD patients were less likely to be men (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4–0.9), immunosuppressed (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.5) or have congestive heart failure (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3–0.9) vs VA. The outcome was similar between all cohorts and affected by age and immunosuppression and not by vaccination, variant or time from vaccination.
ConclusionsVaccination was protective during the Delta variant wave, as suggested by older age and greater immunosuppression in vaccinated breakthrough vs unvaccinated inpatients. Nevertheless, compared with an earlier post-vaccination period, breakthrough infections 6 months post-vaccination occurred in healthier patients. Thus, waning immunity increased vulnerability during the Delta wave, which suggests boosters as a countermeasure.
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Risk and protective factors for SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, surveillance data, Italy, August 2021 to March 2022
We explored the risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Italy between August 2021 and March 2022. Regardless of the prevalent virus variant, being unvaccinated was the most relevant risk factor for reinfection. The risk of reinfection increased almost 18-fold following emergence of the Omicron variant compared with Delta. A severe first SARS-CoV-2 infection and age over 60 years were significant risk factors for severe reinfection.
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mRNA vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) COVID-19 during Omicron variant predominance estimated from real-world surveillance data, Slovenia, February to March 2022
For the period of predominance of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Slovenia, February to March 2022, we estimated mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) COVID-19 using surveillance data. In the most vulnerable age group comprising individuals aged 65 years and more, VE against SARI COVID-19 was 95% (95% CI: 95–96%) for those vaccinated with three doses, in comparison to 82% (95% CI: 79–84%) for those vaccinated with two doses. Such levels of protection were maintained for at least 6 months.
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Assessing the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Spain, 30 August 2020 to 31 January 2021
BackgroundAfter a national lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, regional governments implemented different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the second wave.
AimTo analyse which implemented NPIs significantly impacted effective reproduction number (Rt) in seven Spanish provinces during 30 August 2020–31 January 2021.
MethodsWe coded each NPI and levels of stringency with a ‘severity index’ (SI) and computed a global SI (mean of SIs per six included interventions). We performed a Bayesian change point analysis on the Rt curve of each province to identify possible associations with global SI variations. We fitted and compared several generalised additive models using multimodel inference, to quantify the statistical effect on Rt of the global SI (stringency) and the individual SIs (separate effect of NPIs).
ResultsThe global SI had a significant lowering effect on the Rt (mean: 0.16 ± 0.05 units for full stringency). Mandatory closing times for non-essential businesses, limited gatherings, and restricted outdoors seating capacities (negative) as well as curfews (positive) were the only NPIs with a significant effect. Regional mobility restrictions and limited indoors seating capacity showed no effect. Our results were consistent with a 1- to 3-week-delayed Rt as a response variable.
ConclusionWhile response measures implemented during the second COVID-19 wave contributed substantially to a decreased reproduction number, the effectiveness of measures varied considerably. Our findings should be considered for future interventions, as social and economic consequences could be minimised by considering only measures proven effective.
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Mycoplasma pneumoniae detections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: results of a global survey, 2017 to 2021
BackgroundMycoplasma pneumoniae respiratory infections are transmitted by aerosol and droplets in close contact.
AimWe investigated global M. pneumoniae incidence after implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in March 2020.
MethodsWe surveyed M. pneumoniae detections from laboratories and surveillance systems (national or regional) across the world from 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021 and compared them with cases from corresponding months between 2017 and 2020. Macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae (MRMp) data were collected from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2021.
ResultsThirty-seven sites from 21 countries in Europe, Asia, America and Oceania submitted valid datasets (631,104 tests). Among the 30,617 M. pneumoniae detections, 62.39% were based on direct test methods (predominantly PCR), 34.24% on a combination of PCR and serology (no distinction between methods) and 3.37% on serology alone (only IgM considered). In all countries, M. pneumoniae incidence by direct test methods declined significantly after implementation of NPIs with a mean of 1.69% (SD ± 3.30) compared with 8.61% (SD ± 10.62) in previous years (p < 0.01). Detection rates decreased with direct but not with indirect test methods (serology) (–93.51% vs + 18.08%; p < 0.01). Direct detections remained low worldwide throughout April 2020 to March 2021 despite widely differing lockdown or school closure periods. Seven sites (Europe, Asia and America) reported MRMp detections in one of 22 investigated cases in April 2020 to March 2021 and 176 of 762 (23.10%) in previous years (p = 0.04).
ConclusionsThis comprehensive collection of M. pneumoniae detections worldwide shows correlation between COVID-19 NPIs and significantly reduced detection numbers.
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Behavioural insights and the evolving COVID-19 pandemic
Behavioural sciences have complemented medical and epidemiological sciences in the response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. As vaccination uptake continues to increase across the EU/EEA – including booster vaccinations – behavioural science research remains important for both pandemic policy, planning of services and communication. From a behavioural perspective, the following three areas are key as the pandemic progresses: (i) attaining and maintaining high levels of vaccination including booster doses across all groups in society, including socially vulnerable populations, (ii) informing sustainable pandemic policies and ensuring adherence to basic prevention measures to protect the most vulnerable population, and (iii) facilitating population preparedness and willingness to support and adhere to the reimposition of restrictions locally or regionally whenever outbreaks may occur. Based on mixed-methods research, expert consultations, and engagement with communities, behavioural data and interventions can thus be important to prevent and effectively respond to local or regional outbreaks, and to minimise socioeconomic and health disparities. In this Perspective, we briefly outline these topics from a European viewpoint, while recognising the importance of considering the specific context in individual countries.
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