1887
  1. Home
  2. Eurosurveillance
  3. Volume 27, Issue 44, 03/Nov/2022
  4. Article
Research Open Access
Like 0
Download

Abstract

Background

Since the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 and throughout 2021, European governments have relied on mathematical modelling to inform policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination.

Aim

We present a scenario-based modelling analysis in the Netherlands during summer 2021, to inform whether to extend vaccination to adolescents (12–17-year-olds) and children (5–11-year-olds).

Methods

We developed a deterministic, age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and compared modelled incidences of infections, hospital and intensive care admissions, and deaths per 100,000 people across vaccination scenarios, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

Results

Our model projections showed that, on average, upon the release of all non-pharmaceutical control measures on 1 November 2021, a large COVID-19 wave may occur in winter 2021/22, followed by a smaller, second wave in spring 2022, regardless of the vaccination scenario. The model projected reductions in infections/severe disease outcomes when vaccination was extended to adolescents and further reductions when vaccination was extended to all people over 5 years-old. When examining projected disease outcomes by age group, individuals benefitting most from extending vaccination were adolescents and children themselves. We also observed reductions in disease outcomes in older age groups, particularly of parent age (30–49 years), when children and adolescents were vaccinated, suggesting some prevention of onward transmission from younger to older age groups.

Conclusions

While our scenarios could not anticipate the emergence/consequences of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, we illustrate how our approach can assist decision making. This could be useful when considering to provide booster doses or intervening against future infection waves.

© Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090
2022-11-03
2024-11-21
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/27/44/eurosurv-27-44-5.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Ritchie M, Rodés-Guirao A, Giattino O-O, et al. Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). Our World in Data. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
  2. Rodríguez A, Kamarthi H, Agarwal P, Ho J, Patel M, Sapre S, et al. Data-Centric Epidemic Forecasting: A Survey. arXiv [cs.LG]. 2022.
  3. Ainslie K, Backer J, van Hoek AJ, Klinkenberg D, McDonald S, Miura F, et al. The expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies. Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM); 2021 Aug. Available from: https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/expected-outcome-of-covid-19-vaccination-strategies
  4. covid19-scenario-modeling-hub: COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. Github; Available from: https://github.com/midas-network/covid19-scenario-modeling-hub
  5. Greiner R, Puig J, Huchery C, Collier N, Garnett ST. Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making. Environ Model Softw. 2014;55:120-31.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.011 
  6. Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, et al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2022;119(15):e2113561119.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119  PMID: 35394862 
  7. Sherratt K, Gruson H, Grah R, Johnson H, Niehus R, Prasse B, et al. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations. medRxiv. 2022;
  8. Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, Smith CP, Truelove S, Runge MC, et al. Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios - United States, April-September 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021;70(19):719-24.  https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3  PMID: 33988185 
  9. European Medicines Agency (EMA). COVID-19 vaccines: authorised. Amsterdam: EMA; 2021. [Accessed 18 Nov 2021]. Available from: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/vaccines-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-authorised#authorised-covid-19-vaccines-section
  10. Federal Drug Administration (FDA). Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for an Unapproved Product Review Memorandum. October 29, 2021. Silver Spring: FDA; 2021.
  11. Liu X, Huang J, Li C, Zhao Y, Wang D, Huang Z, et al. The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Environ Res. 2021;195:110874.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110874  PMID: 33610582 
  12. Pouwels KB, Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, Eyre DW, Vihta K-D, et al. Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK. (preprint). 2021. Available from: https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf
  13. Lopez Bernal J, Andrews N, Gower C, Gallagher E, Simmons R, Thelwall S, et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant. N Engl J Med. 2021;385(7):585-94.  https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891  PMID: 34289274 
  14. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Interim public health considerations for COVID-19 vaccination of adolescents in the EU/EEA. 1 June 2021. Stockholm: ECDC; 2021. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Interim-public-health-considerations-for-COVID-19-vaccination-of-adolescents.pdf
  15. Marshall M, Ferguson ID, Lewis P, Jaggi P, Gagliardo C, Collins JS, et al. Symptomatic Acute Myocarditis in 7 Adolescents After Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccination. Pediatrics. 2021;148(3):e2021052478.  https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2021-052478  PMID: 34088762 
  16. Oster ME, Shay DK, Su JR, Gee J, Creech CB, Broder KR, et al. Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021. JAMA. 2022;327(4):331-40.  https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.24110  PMID: 35076665 
  17. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in transmission - first update. Stockholm: ECDC; 2020. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/children-and-school-settings-covid-19-transmission
  18. Ludvigsson JF. Systematic review of COVID-19 in children shows milder cases and a better prognosis than adults. Acta Paediatr. 2020;109(6):1088-95.  https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.15270  PMID: 32202343 
  19. Preston LE, Chevinsky JR, Kompaniyets L, Lavery AM, Kimball A, Boehmer TK, et al. Characteristics and Disease Severity of US Children and Adolescents Diagnosed With COVID-19. JAMA Netw Open. 2021;4(4):e215298.  https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.5298  PMID: 33835179 
  20. Bhopal SS, Bagaria J, Olabi B, Bhopal R. Children and young people remain at low risk of COVID-19 mortality. Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2021;5(5):e12-3.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(21)00066-3  PMID: 33713603 
  21. Buonsenso D, Munblit D, De Rose C, Sinatti D, Ricchiuto A, Carfi A, et al. Preliminary evidence on long COVID in children. Acta Paediatr. 2021;110(7):2208-11.  https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.15870  PMID: 33835507 
  22. Radtke T, Ulyte A, Puhan MA, Kriemler S. Long-term symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents. JAMA. 2021;326(9):869-71.  https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.11880  PMID: 34264266 
  23. Say D, Crawford N, McNab S, Wurzel D, Steer A, Tosif S. Post-acute COVID-19 outcomes in children with mild and asymptomatic disease. Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2021;5(6):e22-3.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(21)00124-3  PMID: 33891880 
  24. Havers FP, Whitaker M, Self JL, Chai SJ, Kirley PD, Alden NB, et al. Hospitalization of Adolescents Aged 12–17 Years with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1, 2020–April 24, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021;70(23):851-7.  https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7023e1  PMID: 34111061 
  25. Encinosa W, Figueroa J, Elias Y. Severity of Hospitalizations From SARS-CoV-2 vs Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Children Aged 5 to 11 Years in 11 US States. JAMA Pediatr. 2022;176(5):520-2.  https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.6566  PMID: 35188536 
  26. Delahoy MJ, Ujamaa D, Taylor CA, Cummings C, Anglin O, Holstein R, et al. Comparison of influenza and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among children < 18 years old in the United States-FluSurv-NET (October-April 2017-2021) and COVID-NET (October 2020-September 2021). Clin Infect Dis. 2022;ciac388.  https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciac388  PMID: 35594564 
  27. Backer JA, Mollema L, Vos ERA, Klinkenberg D, van der Klis FRM, de Melker HE, et al. Impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 on contacts and mixing patterns: repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Netherlands, 2016-17, April 2020 and June 2020. Euro Surveill. 2021;26(8):2000994.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.8.2000994  PMID: 33632374 
  28. Rijksoverheid. Coronavirus Dashboard. 7 Sep 2021. [Accessed 7 Sep 2021]. Available from: https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen
  29. Riley S, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Walters CE, Wang H, Atchison C, et al. Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: Detection by community viral surveillance. Science. 2021;372(6545):990-5.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf0874  PMID: 33893241 
  30. European Covid-19 Scenario Hub: Round 2. In: covid19-scenario-hub-europe. 11 Jul 2022 [Accessed 1 Aug 2022]. Available from: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/covid19-scenario-hub-europe
  31. Verberk JDM, Vos RA, Mollema L, van Vliet J, van Weert JWM, de Melker HE, et al. Third national biobank for population-based seroprevalence studies in the Netherlands, including the Caribbean Netherlands. BMC Infect Dis. 2019;19(1):470.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-019-4019-y  PMID: 31138148 
  32. Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM). PIENTER Corona Study. Dutch. Bilthoven, The Netherlands: RIVM; 6 Oct 2021. [Accessed 21 Oct 2021]. Available from: https://www.rivm.nl/pienter-corona-studie
  33. Liu Y, Rocklöv J. The reproductive number of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is far higher compared to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus. J Travel Med. 2021;28(7):taab124.  https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taab124  PMID: 34369565 
  34. van de Kassteele J, van Eijkeren J, Wallinga J. Efficient estimation of age-specific social contact rates between men and women. Ann Appl Stat. 2017;11(1):320-39.  https://doi.org/10.1214/16-AOAS1006 
  35. R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria; 2019. Available from: https://www.r-project.org/
  36. Wallinga J, van Boven M, Lipsitch M. Optimizing infectious disease interventions during an emerging epidemic. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2010;107(2):923-8.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0908491107  PMID: 20080777 
  37. Viana R, Moyo S, Amoako DG, Tegally H, Scheepers C, Althaus CL, et al. Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa. Nature. 2022;603(7902):679-86.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04411-y  PMID: 35042229 
  38. Coronavirus timeline. 17 Jun 2022. Dutch. [Accessed 2 Aug 2022]. Available from: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/coronavirus-tijdlijn
  39. European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC). European Covid-19 Scenario Hub. [Accessed 27 Jun 2022]. Stockholm: ECDC. Available from: https://covid19scenariohub.eu/index.html
A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Kylie+E+C+Ainslie&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ainslie Kylie E C</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Jantien+A+Backer&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Backer Jantien A</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Pieter+T+de+Boer&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">de Boer Pieter T</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Albert+Jan+van+Hoek&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">van Hoek Albert Jan</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Don+Klinkenberg&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Klinkenberg Don</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Hester+Korthals+Altes&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Korthals Altes Hester</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Ka+Yin+Leung&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Leung Ka Yin</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Hester+de+Melker&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">de Melker Hester</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Fuminari+Miura&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Miura Fuminari</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Jacco+Wallinga&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Wallinga Jacco</a></span>. A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2022;27(44):pii=2101090. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 19 Nov 2021;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 22 Aug 2022 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2101090
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplementary data

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error