Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Several clinical trials have assessed the protective potential of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. Chronic exposure to such drugs might lower the risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

To assess COVID-19 incidence and risk of hospitalisation in a cohort of patients chronically taking chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine.

We used linked health administration databases to follow a cohort of patients with chronic prescription of hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine and a control cohort matched by age, sex and primary care service area, between 1 January and 30 April 2020. COVID-19 cases were identified using International Classification of Diseases 10 codes.

We analysed a cohort of 6,746 patients (80% female) with active prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, and 13,492 controls. During follow-up, there were 97 (1.4%) COVID-19 cases in the exposed cohort and 183 (1.4%) among controls. The incidence rate was very similar between the two groups (12.05 vs 11.35 cases/100,000 person-days). The exposed cohort was not at lower risk of infection compared with controls (hazard ratio (HR): 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83–1.44; p = 0.50). Forty cases (0.6%) were admitted to hospital in the exposed cohort and 50 (0.4%) in the control cohort, suggesting a higher hospitalisation rate in the former, though differences were not confirmed after adjustment (HR: 1·46; 95% CI: 0.91–2.34; p = 0.10).

Patients chronically exposed to chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine did not differ in risk of COVID-19 nor hospitalisation, compared with controls. As controls were mainly female, findings might not be generalisable to a male population.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented physical distancing measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

To measure the actual reduction of contacts when physical distancing measures are implemented.

A cross-sectional survey was carried out in the Netherlands in 2016–17, in which participants reported the number and age of their contacts the previous day. The survey was repeated among a subsample of the participants in April 2020, after strict physical distancing measures were implemented, and in an extended sample in June 2020, after some measures were relaxed.

The average number of community contacts per day was reduced from 14.9 (interquartile range (IQR): 4–20) in the 2016–17 survey to 3.5 (IQR: 0–4) after strict physical distancing measures were implemented, and rebounded to 8.8 (IQR: 1–10) after some measures were relaxed. All age groups restricted their community contacts to at most 5, on average, after strict physical distancing measures were implemented. In children, the number of community contacts reverted to baseline levels after measures were eased, while individuals aged 70 years and older had less than half their baseline levels.

Strict physical distancing measures greatly reduced overall contact numbers, which likely contributed to curbing the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Netherlands. However, age groups reacted differently when measures were relaxed, with children reverting to normal contact numbers and elderly individuals maintaining restricted contact numbers. These findings offer guidance for age-targeted measures in future waves of the pandemic.

Reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assays are used to test for infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. RT-PCR tests are highly specific and the probability of false positives is low, but false negatives are possible depending on swab type and time since symptom onset.

To determine how the probability of obtaining a false-negative test in infected patients is affected by time since symptom onset and swab type.

We used generalised additive mixed models to analyse publicly available data from patients who received multiple RT-PCR tests and were identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive at least once.

The probability of a positive test decreased with time since symptom onset, with oropharyngeal (OP) samples less likely to yield a positive result than nasopharyngeal (NP) samples. The probability of incorrectly identifying an uninfected individual due to a false-negative test was considerably reduced if negative tests were repeated 24 hours later. For a small false-positive test probability (<0.5%), the true number of infected individuals was larger than the number of positive tests. For a higher false-positive test probability, the true number of infected individuals was smaller than the number of positive tests.

NP samples are more sensitive than OP samples. The later an infected individual is tested after symptom onset, the less likely they are to test positive. This has implications for identifying infected patients, contact tracing and discharging convalescing patients who are potentially still infectious.

Evidence for face-mask wearing in the community to protect against respiratory disease is unclear.

To assess effectiveness of wearing face masks in the community to prevent respiratory disease, and recommend improvements to this evidence base.

We systematically searched Scopus, Embase and MEDLINE for studies evaluating respiratory disease incidence after face-mask wearing (or not). Narrative synthesis and random-effects meta-analysis of attack rates for primary and secondary prevention were performed, subgrouped by design, setting, face barrier type, and who wore the mask. Preferred outcome was influenza-like illness. Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) quality assessment was undertaken and evidence base deficits described.

33 studies (12 randomised control trials (RCTs)) were included. Mask wearing reduced primary infection by 6% (odds ratio (OR): 0.94; 95% CI: 0.75–1.19 for RCTs) to 61% (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.32–2.27; OR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.18–0.84 and OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.45–0.85 for cohort, case–control and cross-sectional studies respectively). RCTs suggested lowest secondary attack rates when both well and ill household members wore masks (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.48–1.37). While RCTs might underestimate effects due to poor compliance and controls wearing masks, observational studies likely overestimate effects, as mask wearing might be associated with other risk-averse behaviours. GRADE was low or very low quality.

Wearing face masks may reduce primary respiratory infection risk, probably by 6–15%. It is important to balance evidence from RCTs and observational studies when their conclusions widely differ and both are at risk of significant bias. COVID-19-specific studies are required.

In March 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization.

Our objective was to identify risk factors predictive of severe disease and death in France.

In this prospective cohort study, we included patients ≥ 18 years old with confirmed COVID-19, hospitalised in Strasbourg and Mulhouse hospitals (France), in March 2020. We respectively compared patients who developed severe disease (admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or death) and patients who died, to those who did not, by day 7 after hospitalisation.

Among 1,045 patients, 424 (41%) had severe disease, including 335 (32%) who were admitted to ICU, and 115 (11%) who died. Mean age was 66 years (range: 20–100), and 612 (59%) were men. Almost 75% of patients with body mass index (BMI) data (n = 897) had a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² (n = 661). Independent risk factors associated with severe disease were advanced age (odds ratio (OR): 1.1 per 10-year increase; 95% CrI (credible interval): 1.0–1.2), male sex (OR: 2.1; 95% CrI: 1.5–2.8), BMI of 25–29.9 kg/m² (OR: 1.8; 95% CrI: 1.2–2.7) or ≥ 30 (OR: 2.2; 95% CrI: 1.5–3.3), dyspnoea (OR: 2.5; 95% CrI: 1.8–3.4) and inflammatory parameters (elevated C-reactive protein and neutrophil count, low lymphocyte count). Risk factors associated with death were advanced age (OR: 2.7 per 10-year increase; 95% CrI: 2.1–3.4), male sex (OR: 1.7; 95% CrI: 1.1–2.7), immunosuppression (OR: 3.8; 95% CrI: 1.6–7.7), diabetes (OR: 1.7; 95% CrI: 1.0–2.7), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.3; 95% CrI: 1.3–3.9), dyspnoea (OR: 2.1; 95% CrI: 1.2–3.4) and inflammatory parameters.

Overweightedness, obesity, advanced age, male sex, comorbidities, dyspnoea and inflammation are risk factors for severe COVID-19 or death in hospitalised patients. Identifying these features among patients in routine clinical practice might improve COVID-19 management.

The natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.

Our objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.

We estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.

The median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.

The high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.