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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV: results from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) cohort study, 2014 to 2017
BackgroundDespite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and the expected treatment as prevention (TasP) effect, transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists in men who have sex with men (MSM) who engage in high-risk sexual behaviours.
AimWe aimed to estimate the incidence of primary HCV infection among MSM living with HIV in France when DAA was readily available.
MethodsWe used data from a large French hospital cohort of persons living with HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) prospectively collected between 2014 and 2017. HCV incidence rates were calculated using person-time methods for HCV-negative MSM at inclusion who had serological follow-up from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the main assumptions to assess their impact on the results.
ResultsOf 14,273 MSM living with HIV who were initially HCV-seronegative, 330 acquired HCV during follow-up over 45,866 person-years (py), resulting in an overall estimated incidence rate of 0.72/100 py (95% CI: 0.65–0.80). HCV incidence significantly decreased from 0.98/100 py (95% CI: 0.81–1.19) in 2014 to 0.45/100 py (95% CI: 0.35–0.59) in 2017 (54% decrease; 95% CI: 36–67). This trend was confirmed by most of the sensitivity analyses.
ConclusionThe primary incidence of HCV was halved for MSM living with HIV between 2014 and 2017. This decrease may be related to unrestricted DAA availability in France for individuals living with HIV. Further interventions, including risk reduction, are needed to reach HCV micro-elimination in MSM living with HIV.
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Post-migration acquisition of HIV: Estimates from four European countries, 2007 to 2016
BackgroundThe assumption that migrants acquire human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before migration, particularly those from high prevalence areas, is common.
AimWe assessed the place of HIV acquisition of migrants diagnosed in four European countries using surveillance data.
MethodsUsing CD4+ T-cell count trajectories modelled to account for seroconversion bias, we estimated infection year of newly HIV-diagnosed migrants residing in the United Kingdom (UK), Belgium, Sweden and Italy with a known arrival year and CD4+ T-cell count at diagnosis. Multivariate analyses identified predictors for post-migration acquisition.
ResultsBetween 2007 and 2016, migrants constituted 56% of people newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK, 62% in Belgium, 72% in Sweden and 29% in Italy. Of 23,595 migrants included, 60% were born in Africa and 70% acquired HIV heterosexually. An estimated 9,400 migrants (40%; interquartile range (IQR): 34–59) probably acquired HIV post-migration. This proportion was similar by risk group, sex and region of birth. Time since migration was a strong predictor of post-migration HIV acquisition: 91% (IQR: 87–95) among those arriving 10 or more years prior to diagnosis; 30% (IQR: 21–37) among those 1–5 years prior. Younger age at arrival was a predictor: 15–18 years (81%; IQR: 74–86), 19–25 years (53%; IQR: 45–63), 26–35 years (37%; IQR: 30–46) and 36 years and older (25%; IQR: 21–33).
ConclusionsMigrants, regardless of origin, sex and exposure to HIV are at risk of acquiring HIV post-migration to Europe. Alongside accessible HIV testing, prevention activities must target migrant communities.
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HIV/HBV coinfection: temporal trends and patient characteristics, Spain, 2002 to 2018
Leire Pérez-Latorre , Juan Berenguer , Rafael Micán , Marta Montero , Carmen Cifuentes , Teresa Puig , José Sanz , Oscar L Ferrero , Belén De La Fuente , Carmen Rodríguez , Sergio Reus , José Hernández-Quero , Gabriel Gaspar , Laura Pérez-Martínez , Coral García , Luis Force , Sergio Veloso , Marta De Miguel , Inmaculada Jarrín , Juan González-García and the GeSIDA 8514 Study GroupBackgroundRecent and reliable estimates on the prevalence of coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Europe are lacking.
AimLeveraged on a study designed to assess HIV/HCV coinfection prevalence, we assessed the prevalence of HIV/HBV coinfection in Spain in 2018 and compared the results with five similar studies performed since 2002.
MethodsThis cross-sectional prevalence study was carried out in 43 centres, and patients were selected using simple random sampling. The reference population comprised 40,322 patients and the sample size were 1,690 patients.
ResultsThe prevalence of HIV/HBV coinfection in Spain at the end of 2018 was 3.2%. The prevalence in 2002, 2009, 2015, 2016 and 2017 was 4.9%, 3.4%, 3%, 3.9% and 3%, respectively. Among the HIV/HBV-coinfected patients identified in 2018, 16.7% had cirrhosis according to transient elastography and 26.3% tested positive for antibodies against hepatitis D virus. All HIV/HBV-coinfected patients were receiving drugs with activity against HBV, and 97% of those tested for HBV DNA had an HBV DNA load < 80 IU/mL.
ConclusionsThe prevalence of HIV/HBV coinfection in Spain remained stable at around 3% for a decade. Our data could facilitate the design of national programmes to control HBV infection and help identify areas of patient management that need improvement.
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Minimum dataset for monitoring national human immunodeficiency virus pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV PrEP) programmes: a five-nation consensus, 2019
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral medication to prevent HIV acquisition, is a highly effective biomedical prevention tool. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends PrEP for people at substantial risk of HIV infection, as part of combination prevention, and highlights the need for robust evaluation of PrEP programmes. Based on suggested WHO core indicators, we created a concise set of HIV PrEP-related dataset variables, to harmonise the monitoring and evaluation of PrEP programmes across five closely related nations (England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland and Wales). The dataset is based on the PrEP cascade and is intended to represent the minimum variables needed for reporting and comparison of meaningful data at national and multinational level. The dataset can be modified for settings with different health and surveillance systems. It is intended for public health, academic, clinical and health planning, and public audiences. Here we describe the dataset and illustrate its use with data from the first year of the Scottish National PrEP programme.
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The contribution of HIV point-of-care tests in early HIV diagnosis: community-based HIV testing monitoring in Catalonia, 1995 to 2018
BackgroundCommunity-based HIV testing services combined with the use of point-of-care tests (POCT) have the potential to improve early diagnosis through increasing availability, accessibility and uptake of HIV testing.
AimTo describe community-based HIV testing activity in Catalonia, Spain, from 1995 to 2018, and to evaluate the impact of HIV POCT on the HIV continuum of care.
MethodsA community-based network of voluntary counselling and testing services in Catalonia, Spain has been collecting systematic data on activity, process and results since 1995. A descriptive analysis was performed on pooled data, describing the data in terms of people tested and reactive screening test results.
ResultsBetween 1995 and 2018, 125,876 HIV tests were performed (2.1% reactive). Since the introduction of HIV POCT in 2007, a large increase in the number of tests performed was observed, reaching 14,537 tests alone in 2018 (1.3% reactive). Men who have sex with men (MSM), as a proportion of all people tested, has increased greatly over time reaching 74.7% in 2018. The highest percentage of reactive tests was found in people who inject drugs followed by MSM. The contribution of community-based HIV testing to the overall total notified cases in the Catalonia HIV registry has gradually increased, reaching 37.9% in 2018, and 70% of all MSM cases. In 2018, the percentage of individuals with a reactive screening test who were linked to care was 89.0%.
ConclusionOur study reinforces the important role that community-based HIV POCT has on the diagnosis of HIV in key populations.
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Different guidelines for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility estimate HIV risk differently: an incidence study in a cohort of HIV-negative men who have sex with men, Portugal, 2014–2018
More LessIntroductionGuidelines for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provide criteria to identify individuals at higher risk of HIV infection. We compared the ability to predict HIV seroconversion of four guidelines: the World Health Organization (WHO), the United States Public Health Service and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC), the European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) and the Portuguese National Health Service (PNHS).
AimWe aimed to measure the association between guideline-specific eligibility and HIV seroconversion.
MethodsWe studied 1,254 participants from the Lisbon Cohort of men who have sex with men with at least two evaluations between March 2014 and March 2018, corresponding to 1,724.54 person-years (PY) of follow-up. We calculated incidence rates (IR) according to each guideline eligibility definition and incident rate ratios (IRR) to test the association between eligibility at baseline and HIV seroconversion.
ResultsWe found 28 incident cases (IR: 1.62/100 PY; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–2.35). Guidelines’ sensitivity varied from 60.7% (EACS) to 85.7% (PNHS) and specificity varied from 31.8% (US CDC) to 51.5% (EACS). IR was highest among those defined as eligible by the PNHS guideline (2.46/100 PY; IRR = 4.61; 95% CI: 1.60–13.27) and lowest for the WHO guideline (1.89/100 PY; IRR = 1.52; 95% CI: 0.69–3.35).
ConclusionsBeing identified as eligible for PrEP was associated with a higher risk of infection. The magnitude of risk varied according to the guideline used. However, the number of HIV infections identified among ineligible participants highlights the potential for missing people who need PrEP.
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Current experiences of accessing and using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the United Kingdom: a cross-sectional online survey, May to July 2019
The 2019 online pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) user survey in the United Kingdom was conducted to assess HIV PrEP access, and user characteristics. One in five respondents continued experiencing difficulties accessing PrEP; users were almost exclusively gay or bisexual men at high risk of HIV. The majority obtained PrEP through health service clinics and rated PrEP positively. High STI rates were reported among users. Renal and sexual health checks are advised for those sourcing PrEP privately.
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HIV among women in the WHO European Region – epidemiological trends and predictors of late diagnosis, 2009-2018
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among women remains an issue in the WHO European Region, with nearly 50,000 women diagnosed in 2018 and over half (54%) diagnosed late. Although new HIV diagnoses declined between 2009 and 2018 in the West of the Region, they increased in the Centre and East. Understanding the characteristics of women diagnosed with HIV can inform gender-sensitive prevention services including pre-exposure prophylaxis and early testing and linkage to care.
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HIV infections and HIV testing during pregnancy, Germany, 1993 to 2016
More LessBackgroundElimination of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV by 2020 is a goal of the World Health Organization (WHO) action plan for the European Region. However, data to monitor progress towards MTCT elimination are not readily available in Germany.
AimWe aimed to estimate the number of pregnant women with HIV and MTCT rates in Germany.
MethodsWe triangulated retrospectively obtained data from: (i) healthcare reimbursement for HIV screening tests, (ii) a statutory health insurance subsample of prevalent and incident HIV diagnoses among pregnant women, (iii) a mathematical model of the German HIV epidemic with number, region of origin and risk factors for women of childbearing age, and (iv) the statutory anonymous HIV registry on children infected through HIV MTCT.
ResultsThe number of women aged 15–49 years with HIV increased from ca 6,000 in 1993 to ca 11,000 in 2016. Risk of injecting drug use (IDU) declined from 65% in 1993 to 16% in 2016. The annual proportion of women living with HIV giving live birth increased from a mean of 1.9% during 1993 to 1998 to 4.9% in 2011 to 2015. HIV screening rates during pregnancy increased from ca 50% in 2001 to ca 90% in 2016. The HIV MTCT rate dropped from 6.8% in 2001 to 1.1% in 2016.
ConclusionsThe population of women living with HIV in Germany shifted from predominantly IDU-associated infections to predominantly sexually acquired infections, while fertility rates more than doubled. MTCT rates dropped, mainly because of improved detection and management of HIV in pregnancy.
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Estimating the ‘PrEP Gap’: how implementation and access to PrEP differ between countries in Europe and Central Asia in 2019
In 2019, only 14 European and Central Asian countries provided reimbursed HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Using EMIS-2017 data, we present the difference between self-reported use and expressed need for PrEP in individual countries and the European Union (EU). We estimate that 500,000 men who have sex with men in the EU cannot access PrEP, although they would be very likely to use it. PrEP’s potential to eliminate HIV is currently unrealised by national healthcare systems.
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Prescription of antimicrobials in primary health care as a marker to identify people living with undiagnosed HIV infection, Denmark, 1998 to 2016
BackgroundDevelopment of additional diagnostic strategies for earlier HIV diagnosis are needed as approximately 50% of newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals continue to present late for HIV care.
AimWe aimed to analyse antimicrobial consumption in the 3 years preceding HIV diagnosis, assess whether there was a higher consumption in those diagnosed with HIV compared with matched controls and whether the level of consumption was associated with the risk of HIV infection.
MethodsWe conducted a nested case–control study, identifying all individuals (n = 2,784 cases) diagnosed with HIV in Denmark from 1998 to 2016 and 13 age-and sex-matched population controls per case (n = 36,192 controls) from national registers. Antimicrobial drug consumption was estimated as defined daily doses per person-year. We used conditional logistic regression to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.
ResultsIn the 3 years preceding an HIV diagnosis, we observed more frequent and higher consumption of antimicrobial drugs in cases compared with controls, with 72.4% vs 46.3% having had at least one prescription (p < 0.001). For all antimicrobial classes, the association between consumption and risk of subsequent HIV diagnosis was statistically significant (p < 0.01). The association was stronger with higher consumption and with shorter time to HIV diagnosis.
ConclusionHIV-infected individuals have a significantly higher use of antimicrobial drugs in the 3 years preceding HIV diagnosis than controls. Prescription of antimicrobial drugs in primary healthcare could be an opportunity to consider proactive HIV testing. Further studies need to identify optimal prescription cut-offs that could endorse its inclusion in public health policies.
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Antenatal HIV screening: results from the National Perinatal Survey, France, 2016
BackgroundUniversal antenatal HIV screening programmes are an effective method of preventing mother-to-child transmission.
AimsTo assess the coverage and yield of the French programme on a nationally representative sample of pregnant women, and predictive factors for being unscreened or missing information on the performance/ result of a HIV test.
MethodsData came from the medical records of women included in the cross-sectional 2016 French National Perinatal Survey. We calculated odds ratios (OR) to identify factors for being unscreened for HIV and for missing information by multivariable analyses.
ResultsOf 13,210 women, 12,782 (96.8%) were screened for HIV and 134 (1.0%) were not; information was missing for 294 (2.2%). HIV infection was newly diagnosed in 19/12,769 (0.15%) women screened. The OR for being unscreened was significantly higher in women in legally registered partnerships (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.6), with 1–2 years of post-secondary schooling (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2–2.1), part-time employment (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.8), inadequate antenatal care (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.5–2.4) and receiving care from > 1 provider (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1–2.8). The OR of missing information was higher in multiparous women (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2–1.5) and women cared for by general practitioners (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.9).
ConclusionsThe French antenatal HIV screening programme is effective in detecting HIV among pregnant women. However, a few women are still not screened and awareness of the factors that predict this could contribute to improved screening levels.
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New HIV-1 circulating recombinant form 94: from phylogenetic detection of a large transmission cluster to prevention in the age of geosocial-networking apps in France, 2013 to 2017
Marc Wirden , Fabienne De Oliveira , Magali Bouvier-Alias , Sidonie Lambert-Niclot , Marie-Laure Chaix , Stéphanie Raymond , Ali Si-Mohammed , Chakib Alloui , Elisabeth André-Garnier , Pantxika Bellecave , Brice Malve , Audrey Mirand , Coralie Pallier , Jean-Dominique Poveda , Theresa Rabenja , Veronique Schneider , Anne Signori-Schmuck , Karl Stefic , Vincent Calvez , Diane Descamps , Jean-Christophe Plantier , Anne-Genevieve Marcelin , Benoit Visseaux and on behalf of the French National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis (ANRS) AC43 Study GroupBackgroundEnding the HIV pandemic must involve new tools to rapidly identify and control local outbreaks and prevent the emergence of recombinant strains with epidemiological advantages.
AimThis observational study aimed to investigate in France a cluster of HIV-1 cases related to a new circulating recombinant form (CRF). The confirmation this CRF’s novelty as well as measures to control its spread are presented.
MethodsPhylogenetic analyses of HIV sequences routinely generated for drug resistance genotyping before 2018 in French laboratories were employed to detect the transmission chain. The CRF involved was characterised by almost full-length viral sequencing for six cases. Cases’ clinical data were reviewed. Where possible, epidemiological information was collected with a questionnaire.
ResultsThe transmission cluster comprised 49 cases, mostly diagnosed in 2016–2017 (n = 37). All were infected with a new CRF, CRF94_cpx. The molecular proximity of this CRF to X4 strains and the high median viraemia, exceeding 5.0 log10 copies/mL, at diagnosis, even in chronic infection, raise concerns of enhanced virulence. Overall, 41 cases were diagnosed in the Ile-de-France region and 45 were men who have sex with men. Among 24 cases with available information, 20 reported finding partners through a geosocial networking app. Prevention activities in the area and population affected were undertaken.
ConclusionWe advocate the systematic use of routinely generated HIV molecular data by a dedicated reactive network, to improve and accelerate targeted prevention interventions. Geosocial networking apps can play a role in the spread of outbreaks, but could also deliver local targeted preventive alerts.
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Seroprevalence and demographic factors associated with hepatitis B, hepatitis C and HIV infection from a hospital emergency department testing programme, London, United Kingdom, 2015 to 2016
BackgroundProgress towards HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination requires local prevalence estimates and linkage to care (LTC) of undiagnosed or disengaged cases.
AimWe aimed to estimate seroprevalence, factors associated with positive blood-borne virus (BBV) serology and numbers needed to screen (NNS) to detect a new BBV diagnosis and achieve full LTC from emergency department (ED) BBV testing.
MethodsDuring a 9-month programme in an ED in east London, England, testing was offered to adult attendees having a full blood count (FBC). We estimated factors associated with positive BBV serology using logistic regression and NNS as the inverse of seroprevalence. Estimates were weighted to the age, sex and ethnicity of the FBC population.
ResultsOf 6,211 FBC patients tested, 217 (3.5%) were positive for at least one BBV. Weighted BBV seroprevalence was 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6–4.9). Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of positive BBV serology were elevated among patients that were: male (aOR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.9–3.9), 40–59 years old (aOR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4–2.7), of Black British/Black other ethnicity (aOR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2–2.8) or had no fixed address (aOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5–5.5). NNS to detect a new BBV diagnosis was 154 (95% CI: 103–233) and 135 (95% CI: 93–200) to achieve LTC.
ConclusionsThe low NNS suggests routine BBV screening in EDs may be worthwhile. Those considering similar programmes should use our findings to inform their assessments of anticipated public health benefits.
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Combination prevention and HIV: a cross-sectional community survey of gay and bisexual men in London, October to December 2016
BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) are at risk of HIV and are an important population to monitor and ameliorate combination prevention efforts.
AimTo estimate HIV prevalence and identify factors associated with frequent HIV testing (≥ 2 HIV tests in the last year) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among MSM in London.
MethodsFor this cross-sectional study, MSM recruited from 22 social venues provided oral-fluid samples for anonymous HIV antibody (Ab) testing and completed a questionnaire. Factors associated with frequent HIV testing and PrEP use were identified through logistic regression.
ResultsOf 767 men recruited, 545 provided an eligible oral specimen. Among these, 38 MSM (7.0%) were anti-HIV positive including five (13.2%; 5/38) who reported their status as negative. Condomless anal sex within the previous 3 months was reported by 60.1% (412/685) men. Frequent HIV testing was associated with, in the past year, a reported sexually transmitted infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 5.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.66–9.58) or ≥ 2 casual condomless partners (AOR 2–4 partners: 3.65 (95% CI: 1.87–7.10); AOR 5–10 partners: 3.34(95% CI: 1.32–8.49). Age ≥ 35 years was related to less frequent HIV testing (AOR 35–44 years: 0.34 (95% CI: 0.16–0.72); AOR ≥ 45 years: 0.29 (95% CI: 0.12–0.69). PrEP use in the past year was reported by 6.2% (46/744) of MSM and associated with ≥ 2 casual condomless sex partners (AOR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.17–6.98) or chemsex (AOR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.09–4.91).
ConclusionThis bio-behavioural study of MSM found high rates of behaviours associated with increased risk of HIV transmission. Combination prevention, including frequent HIV testing and use of PrEP, remains crucial in London.
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Piloting a surveillance system for HIV drug resistance in the European Union
Marita JW van de Laar , Arnold Bosman , Anastasia Pharris , Emmi Andersson , Lambert Assoumou , Eva Ay , Norbert Bannert , Barbara Bartmeyer , Melissa Brady , Marie-Laure Chaix , Diane Descamps , Kenny Dauwe , Jannik Fonager , Andrea Hauser , Maja Lunar , Maria Mezei , Martha Neary , Mario Poljak , Ard van Sighem , Chris Verhofstede , Andrew J Amato-Gauci and Eeva K BrobergBackgroundA steady increase in HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) has been demonstrated globally in individuals initiating first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). To support effective use of ART and prevent spread of HIVDR, monitoring is essential.
AimWe piloted a surveillance system for transmitted HIVDR to assess the feasibility of implementation at the European level.
MethodAll 31 countries in the European Union and European Economic Area were invited to retrospectively submit data on individuals newly diagnosed with HIV in 2015 who were tested for antiviral susceptibility before ART, either as case-based or as aggregate data. We used the Stanford HIV database algorithm to translate genetic sequences into levels of drug resistance.
ResultsNine countries participated, with six reporting case-based data on 1,680 individuals and four reporting aggregated data on 1,402 cases. Sequence data were available for 1,417 cases: 14.5% of individuals (n = 244) showed resistance to at least one antiretroviral drug. In case-based surveillance, the highest levels of transmitted HIVDR were observed for non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) with resistance detected in 8.6% (n = 145), followed by resistance to nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) (5.1%; n = 85) and protease inhibitors (2.0%; n = 34).
ConclusionWe conclude that standard reporting of HIVDR data was feasible in the participating countries. Legal barriers for data sharing, consensus on definitions and standardisation of interpretation algorithms should be clarified in the process of enhancing European-wide HIV surveillance with drug resistance information.
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Missed opportunities for HIV testing in people diagnosed with HIV, Estonia, 2014 to 2015
More LessBackgroundStudies of missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis of HIV have shown that patients with undiagnosed HIV often present to healthcare settings numerous times before eventually receiving their diagnosis.
AimThe aim of the study was to assess missed opportunities for HIV testing among people newly diagnosed with HIV.
MethodsIn this observational retrospective study, we collected data from the Estonian Health Board on new HIV cases in people aged 16–49 years diagnosed in 2014–15 and from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund database for treatment invoices on their contacts with healthcare services in the 2 years preceding diagnosis. Diagnoses on treatment invoices were categorised as HIV indicator conditions using ICD-10 codes.
ResultsOf 538 newly diagnosed HIV cases (62.5%; 336 men), 82% had visited healthcare services at least once during the 2 years before HIV diagnosis; the mean number of visits was 9.1. Of these, 16% had been tested for HIV and 31% had at least one ICD-10 code for an HIV indicator condition on at least one of their treatment invoices. In 390 cases of HIV indicator conditions, only 5% were tested for HIV. Of all new HIV cases aged 20–49 years from high-incidence regions (defined as priority groups in national testing guidance), 18% had been tested.
ConclusionsThe HIV testing rate in the 2 years before an HIV diagnosis was very low, even in the presence of an HIV indicator condition. This emphasises the importance of implementing the Estonian HIV testing guidelines.
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Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden
BackgroundSweden has a low HIV prevalence. However, among new HIV diagnoses in 2016, the proportion of late presenters and migrants was high (59% and 81%, respectively). This poses challenges in estimating the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV (PLHIV).
AimTo estimate the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden comparing two models with different demands on data availability and modelling expertise.
MethodsAn individual-based stochastic simulation model of HIV positive populations (SSOPHIE) and the incidence method of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool were applied to clinical, surveillance and migration data from Sweden 1980–2016.
ResultsSSOPHIE estimated that the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in 2013 was 26% (n = 2,100; 90% plausibility range (PR): 900–5,000) for all PLHIV, 17% (n = 600; 90% PR: 100–2,000) for men who have sex with men (MSM), 35% in male (n = 300; 90% PR: 200–700) and 34% in female (n = 400; 90% PR: 200–800) migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The estimates for the ECDC model in 2013 were 21% (n = 2,013; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1,831–2,189) for all PLHIV, 15% (n = 369; 95% CI: 299–434) for MSM and 21% (n = 530; 95% CI: 436–632) for migrants from SSA.
ConclusionsThe proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden is uncertain. SSOPHIE estimates had wide PR. The ECDC model estimates were unreliable because migration was not accounted for. Better migration data and estimation methods are required to obtain reliable estimates of proportions of undiagnosed PLHIV in similar settings.
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Cost-effectiveness and budget effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in Germany from 2018 to 2058
BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective HIV prevention strategy for men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The high cost of PrEP has until recently been a primary barrier to its use. In 2017, generic PrEP became available, reducing the costs by 90%.
AimOur objective was to assess cost-effectiveness and costs of introducing PrEP in Germany.
MethodsWe calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among MSM in Germany. PrEP was targeted to 30% of high-risk MSM. It was assumed that PrEP reduces the risk of HIV infection by 85%. Costs were calculated from a healthcare payer perspective using a 40-year time horizon starting in 2018.
ResultsPrEP can avert 21,000 infections (interquartile range (IQR): 16,000–27,000) in the short run (after 2 years scale-up and 10 years full implementation). HIV care is predicted to cost EUR 36.2 billion (IQR: 32.4–40.4 billion) over the coming 40 years. PrEP can increase costs by at most EUR 150 million within the first decade after introduction. Ten years after introduction, PrEP can become cost-saving, accumulating to savings of HIV-related costs of EUR 5.1 billion (IQR: 3.5–6.9 billion) after 40 years. In a sensitivity analysis, PrEP remained cost-saving even at a 70% price reduction of antiretroviral drug treatment and a lower effectiveness of PrEP.
ConclusionIntroduction of PrEP in Germany is predicted to result in substantial health benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term financial investments in providing PrEP will result in substantial cost-savings in the long term.
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Defining linkage to care following human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis for public health monitoring in Europe
Prompt linkage to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care after diagnosis is crucial to ensure optimal patient outcomes. However, few countries monitor this important public health marker and different definitions have been applied, making country and study comparisons difficult. This article presents an expert-agreed, standard definition of linkage to care for a pragmatic approach to public health monitoring, appropriate to the European context. Here, linkage to care is defined as patient entry into specialist HIV care after diagnosis, measured as the time between the HIV diagnosis date and one of the following markers: either the first clinic attendance date, first CD4+ cell count or viral load date, or HIV treatment start date, depending on data availability; Linkage is considered prompt if within 3 months of diagnosis. Application of this definition by researchers and public health professionals when reporting surveillance or research data relating to linkage to care after HIV diagnosis will enable reliable comparisons across countries, better assessment of the success of health services programmes aimed at improving peoples access to HIV treatment and care and the identification of barriers limiting access to HIV care across Europe.
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