1887
  1. Home
  2. Eurosurveillance
  3. Volume 25, Issue 3, 23/Jan/2020
  4. Article
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 1
Download

Abstract

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9–32%).

© Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044
2020-01-23
2025-04-03
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044
Loading
The full text of this article is not currently available.

References

  1. Su S, Wong G, Shi W, Liu J, Lai ACK, Zhou J, et al. Epidemiology, Genetic Recombination, and Pathogenesis of Coronaviruses. Trends Microbiol. 2016;24(6):490-502.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tim.2016.03.003  PMID: 27012512 
  2. Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses. 2019;11(3):E210.  https://doi.org/10.3390/v11030210  PMID: 30832341 
  3. Hui DS. Epidemic and Emerging Coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). Clin Chest Med. 2017;38(1):71-86.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ccm.2016.11.007  PMID: 28159163 
  4. Guan Y, Peiris JS, Zheng B, Poon LL, Chan KH, Zeng FY, et al. Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. 2004;363(9403):99-104.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)15259-2  PMID: 14726162 
  5. World Health Organization Regional Office for the (WHO/Eastern Mediterranean). MERS Situation Update. Cairo: WHO/Eastern Mediterranean; Nov2019. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. Available from: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/EMRPUB-CSR-241-2019-EN.pdf?ua=1&ua=1
  6. Cowling BJ, Park M, Fang VJ, Wu P, Leung GM, Wu JT. Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, May to June 2015. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(25):7-13.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21163  PMID: 26132767 
  7. Kim KH, Tandi TE, Choi JW, Moon JM, Kim MS. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, 2015: epidemiology, characteristics and public health implications. J Hosp Infect. 2017;95(2):207-13.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2016.10.008  PMID: 28153558 
  8. Wong G, Liu W, Liu Y, Zhou B, Bi Y, Gao GF. MERS, SARS, and Ebola: The Role of Super-Spreaders in Infectious Disease. Cell Host Microbe. 2015;18(4):398-401.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2015.09.013  PMID: 26468744 
  9. Kucharski AJ, Althaus CL. The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(25):14-8.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167  PMID: 26132768 
  10. Amer H, Alqahtani AS, Alzoman H, Aljerian N, Memish ZA. Unusual presentation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus leading to a large outbreak in Riyadh during 2017. Am J Infect Control. 2018;46(9):1022-5.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2018.02.023  PMID: 29661625 
  11. World Health Organization (WHO). WHO Statement Regarding Cluster of Pneumonia Cases in Wuhan, China. Beijing: WHO; 9 Jan 2020. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china
  12. Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Update on outbreak of pneumonia cases in Wuhan]. 31 Dec 2019. [Accessed 13 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989
  13. Beijing News. [Southern China Seafood Market linked to unexplained pneumonia outbreak]. 2 Jan 2020. [Accessed 13 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2020-01/02/content_775695.htm
  14. Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Report on unexplained viral pneumonia]. 5 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020010509020
  15. Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Report on unexplained viral pneumonia]. 11 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011109035
  16. Cheung J. Ill husband and wife add to Wuhan riddle. Hong Kong; The Standard; 16 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Available from: https://www.thestandard.com.hk/sections-news-print/215457/Ill-husband-and-wife--add-to-Wuhan-riddle
  17. Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLoS Med. 2013;10(3):e1001399.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001399  PMID: 23472057 
  18. Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Questions and answers on pneumonia due to novel coronavirus infection]. 14 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011509040
  19. Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Ferguson NM. Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart. Euro Surveill. 2013;18(24):20503. PMID: 23787162 
  20. World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WHO/Pacific). World Health Organization Western Pacific Twitter Feed. Manila: WHO/Pacific; 8:35 PM 20 Jan 2020. Available from: https://twitter.com/WHOWPRO
  21. Yu H, Cowling BJ, Feng L, Lau EH, Liao Q, Tsang TK, et al. Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity. Lancet. 2013;382(9887):138-45.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61207-6  PMID: 23803487 
  22. Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR, Griffin JT, Fraser C, Lam TH, et al. Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease. Am J Epidemiol. 2005;162(5):479-86.  https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwi230  PMID: 16076827 
  23. Cowling BJ, Muller MP, Wong IO, Ho LM, Lo SV, Tsang T, et al. Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings. Arch Intern Med. 2006;166(14):1505-11.  https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.166.14.1505  PMID: 16864761 
  24. Lau EH, Hsiung CA, Cowling BJ, Chen CH, Ho LM, Tsang T, et al. A comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS in Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan. BMC Infect Dis. 2010;10(1):50.  https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-10-50  PMID: 20205928 
  25. Hui DS, Azhar EI, Kim YJ, Memish ZA, Oh MD, Zumla A. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: risk factors and determinants of primary, household, and nosocomial transmission. Lancet Infect Dis. 2018;18(8):e217-27.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30127-0  PMID: 29680581 
  26. Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Ho LM, Chau P, Wong IO, Thach TQ, et al. The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med. 2004;141(9):662-73.  https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-141-9-200411020-00006  PMID: 15520422 
  27. Jewell NP, Lei X, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Leung GM, Ho LM, et al. Non-parametric estimation of the case fatality ratio with competing risks data: an application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Stat Med. 2007;26(9):1982-98.  https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2691  PMID: 16981181 
  28. Chinese National Health Commission (NHC). [Experts answer reporters' questions on pneumonia outbreak of new coronavirus infection]. Beijing: NHC; 20 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Chinese http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s7847/202001/8d735f0bb50b45af928d9944d16950c8.shtml
  29. Chinese National Health Commission (NHC). [Press conference in response to the outbreak of pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV]. Beijing: NHC; 21 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s7847/202001/8d735f0bb50b45af928d9944d16950c8.shtml
  30. World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus – Thailand (ex-China). Geneva: WHO: 14 Jan 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/csr/don/14-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-thailand/en/
  31. World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus – Japan (ex-China). Geneva: WHO; 16 Jan 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/csr/don/16-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-japan-ex-china/en/
  32. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). First Travel-related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States. Atlanta: CDC; 21 Jan 2020. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0121-novel-coronavirus-travel-case.html
  33. Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Taiwan timely identifies first imported case of severe special infectious pneumonia from Wuhan, China through onboard quarantine; Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) raises travel notice level for Wuhan, China to Level 3: Warning. Taipei City: CDC; 21 Jan 2020. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/pVg_jRVvtHhp94C6GShRkQ?typeid=158
Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Peng+Wu&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Wu Peng</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Xinxin+Hao&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Hao Xinxin</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Eric+H+Y+Lau&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Lau Eric H Y</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Jessica+Y+Wong&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Wong Jessica Y</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Kathy+S+M+Leung&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Leung Kathy S M</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Joseph+T+Wu&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Wu Joseph T</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Benjamin+J+Cowling&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Cowling Benjamin J</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Gabriel+M+Leung&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Leung Gabriel M</a></span>. Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(3):pii=2000044. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 21 Jan 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 23 Jan 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000044
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error