1887
  1. Home
  2. Eurosurveillance
  3. Volume 25, Issue 4, 30/Jan/2020
  4. Article
Rapid communication Open Access
Like 0
Download

Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

© Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Closure
A corrected article has been published for this content:
Author’s correction for Euro Surveill. 2020;25(4)
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058
2020-01-30
2024-11-17
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058
Loading
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/25/4/eurosurv-25-4-2.html?itemId=/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. World Health Organization (WHO). Pneumonia of unknown cause – China. Geneva: WHO; 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/
  2. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China.. Lancet. 2020;S0140-6736(20)30183-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9  PMID: 31986261 
  3. Zhou P, Yang X-L, Wang X-G, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. Discovery of a novel coronavirus associated with the recent pneumonia outbreak in humans and its potential bat origin. bioRxiv. 2020;10.1101/2020.01.22.914952. Available from: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/23/2020.01.22.914952
  4. Chan JF, Yuan S, Kok KH, To KK, Chu H, Yang J, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet. 2020;S0140-6736(20)30154-9.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9  PMID: 31986261 
  5. World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation report 9. Geneva: WHO; 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200129-sitrep-9-ncov-v2.pdf?sfvrsn=e2c8915_2
  6. Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cori A, Donnelly C, Riley S, Ferguson NM. Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. London: Imperial College; 2020. Available from: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
  7. Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, Getz WM. Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature. 2005;438(7066):355-9.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04153  PMID: 16292310 
  8. Althaus CL. Ebola superspreading. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;15(5):507-8.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70135-0  PMID: 25932579 
  9. Kucharski AJ, Althaus CL. The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(25):14-8.  https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167  PMID: 26132768 
  10. Rambaut A. Preliminary phylogenetic analysis of 11 nCoV2019 genomes, 2020-01-19. ARTIC Network; 2020. Available from: http://virological.org/t/preliminary-phylogenetic-analysis-of-11-ncov2019-genomes-2020-01-19/329
  11. R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2018. Available from: http://www.R-project.org/
  12. Breban R, Riou J, Fontanet A. Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk. Lancet. 2013;382(9893):694-9.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0  PMID: 23831141 
  13. Cowling BJ, Ho LM, Leung GM. Effectiveness of control measures during the SARS epidemic in Beijing: a comparison of the Rt curve and the epidemic curve. Epidemiol Infect. 2008;136(4):562-6.  https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008722  PMID: 17568476 
  14. Fraser C, Cummings DAT, Klinkenberg D, Burke DS, Ferguson NM. Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic. Am J Epidemiol. 2011;174(5):505-14.  https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwr122  PMID: 21749971 
  15. Oh MD, Choe PG, Oh HS, Park WB, Lee S-M, Park J, et al. Middle EAST respiratory syndrome coronavirus superspreading event involving 81 persons, Korea 2015. J Korean Med Sci. 2015;30(11):1701-5.  https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2015.30.11.1701  PMID: 26539018 
  16. Assiri A, McGeer A, Perl TM, Price CS, Al Rabeeah AA, Cummings DA, et al. KSA MERS-CoV Investigation Team. Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(5):407-16.  https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1306742  PMID: 23782161 
Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Julien+Riou&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Riou Julien</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Christian+L.+Althaus&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Althaus Christian L.</a></span>. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(4):pii=2000058. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 24 Jan 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 30 Jan 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Submit comment
Close
Comment moderation successfully completed
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error