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Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

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2020-01-30
2025-02-20
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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Julien+Riou&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Riou Julien</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Christian+L.+Althaus&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Althaus Christian L.</a></span>. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(4):pii=2000058. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 24 Jan 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 30 Jan 2020 </span> </p>
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