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Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
2020-05-07
2024-11-21
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
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Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Mark+Jit&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Jit Mark</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Thibaut+Jombart&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Jombart Thibaut</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Emily+S+Nightingale&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Nightingale Emily S</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Akira+Endo&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Endo Akira</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Sam+Abbott&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Abbott Sam</a>, <a href="/search?value1=LSHTM+Centre+for+Mathematical+Modelling+of+Infectious+Diseases+COVID-19+Working+Group&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group</a>, <a href="/search?value1=W+John+Edmunds&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Edmunds W John</a></span>. Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(18):pii=2000632. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 15 Apr 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 05 May 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632
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