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Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsMark Jitmark.jit lshtm.ac.uk
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Citation style for this article: . Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(18):pii=2000632. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632 Received: 15 Apr 2020; Accepted: 05 May 2020
Abstract
An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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