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Abstract

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
2020-05-07
2024-12-22
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
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Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Carl+AB+Pearson&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Pearson Carl AB</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Cari+Van+Schalkwyk&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Van Schalkwyk Cari</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Anna+M+Foss&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Foss Anna M</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Kathleen+M+O%E2%80%99Reilly&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">O’Reilly Kathleen M</a>, <a href="/search?value1=SACEMA+Modelling+and+Analysis+Response+Team&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team</a>, <a href="/search?value1=CMMID+COVID-19+working+group&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">CMMID COVID-19 working group</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Juliet+RC+Pulliam&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Pulliam Juliet RC</a></span>. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(18):pii=2000543. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 07 Apr 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 07 May 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
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