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Abstract

Background

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for tools to estimate the relative transmissibility of emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 with respect to circulating strains.

Aim

We aimed to assess the prevalence of co-circulating VOC in Italy and estimate their relative transmissibility.

Methods

We conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February and 18 March 2021 across the whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples and developed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of co-circulating strains.

Results

The Alpha variant was already dominant on 18 February in a majority of regions/autonomous provinces (national prevalence: 54%) and almost completely replaced historical lineages by 18 March (dominant across Italy, national prevalence: 86%). We found a substantial proportion of the Gamma variant on 18 February, almost exclusively in central Italy (prevalence: 19%), which remained similar on 18 March. Nationally, the mean relative transmissibility of Alpha ranged at 1.55–1.57 times the level of historical lineages (95% CrI: 1.45–1.66). The relative transmissibility of Gamma varied according to the assumed degree of cross-protection from infection with other lineages and ranged from 1.12 (95% CrI: 1.03–1.23) with complete immune evasion to 1.39 (95% CrI: 1.26–1.56) for complete cross-protection.

Conclusion

We assessed the relative advantage of competing viral strains, using a mathematical model assuming different degrees of cross-protection. We found substantial co-circulation of Alpha and Gamma in Italy. Gamma was not able to outcompete Alpha, probably because of its lower transmissibility.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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2022-02-03
2024-12-21
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Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Paola+Stefanelli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Stefanelli Paola</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Filippo+Trentini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Trentini Filippo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Giorgio+Guzzetta&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Guzzetta Giorgio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Valentina+Marziano&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Marziano Valentina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alessia+Mammone&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Mammone Alessia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Monica+Sane+Schepisi&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Sane Schepisi Monica</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Piero+Poletti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Poletti Piero</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Carla+Molina+Gran%C3%A9&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Molina Grané Carla</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Mattia+Manica&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Manica Mattia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Martina+del+Manso&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">del Manso Martina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Xanthi+Andrianou&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Andrianou Xanthi</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Marco+Ajelli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ajelli Marco</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Giovanni+Rezza&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Rezza Giovanni</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Silvio+Brusaferro&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Brusaferro Silvio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Stefano+Merler&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Merler Stefano</a>, <a href="/search?value1=COVID-19+National+Microbiology+Surveillance+Study+Group&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">COVID-19 National Microbiology Surveillance Study Group</a></span>. Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2022;27(5):pii=2100429. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.5.2100429" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.5.2100429</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 27 Apr 2021;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 13 Sept 2021 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.5.2100429
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.5.2100429
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