-
Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021
- Margaux MI Meslé1 , Jeremy Brown1 , Piers Mook1 , José Hagan1 , Roberta Pastore1 , Nick Bundle2 , Gianfranco Spiteri2 , Giovanni Ravasi2 , Nathalie Nicolay2 , Nick Andrews3 , Tetiana Dykhanovska4 , Joël Mossong5 , Małgorzata Sadkowska-Todys6 , Raina Nikiforova7 , Flavia Riccardo8 , Hinta Meijerink9 , Clara Mazagatos10 , Jan Kyncl11 , Jim McMenamin12 , Tanya Melillo13 , Stella Kaoustou14 , Daniel Lévy-Bruhl15 , Freek Haarhuis16 , Rivka Rich17 , Meaghan Kall3 , Dorit Nitzan1 , Catherine Smallwood1 , Richard G Pebody1
-
View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1 World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark 2 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden 3 UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom 4 Public Health Center of the MOH of Ukraine (UPHC), Kyiv, Ukraine 5 Health Directorate, Luxembourg, Luxembourg 6 National Institute of Public Health (NIH) – National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland 7 Centre for Disease Prevention and Control of Latvia, Riga, Latvia 8 Instituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy 9 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Olso, Norway 10 Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain 11 National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czechia 12 Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom 13 Ministry of Public Health, Malta 14 National Public Health Organization, Athens, Greece 15 French Public Health Agency, Paris, France 16 Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium 17 Israel Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, IsraelRichard Pebodypebodyr who.int
-
View Citation Hide Citation
Citation style for this article: Meslé Margaux MI, Brown Jeremy, Mook Piers, Hagan José, Pastore Roberta, Bundle Nick, Spiteri Gianfranco, Ravasi Giovanni, Nicolay Nathalie, Andrews Nick, Dykhanovska Tetiana, Mossong Joël, Sadkowska-Todys Małgorzata, Nikiforova Raina, Riccardo Flavia, Meijerink Hinta, Mazagatos Clara, Kyncl Jan, McMenamin Jim, Melillo Tanya, Kaoustou Stella, Lévy-Bruhl Daniel, Haarhuis Freek, Rich Rivka, Kall Meaghan, Nitzan Dorit, Smallwood Catherine, Pebody Richard G. Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021. Euro Surveill. 2021;26(47):pii=2101021. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021 Received: 01 Nov 2021; Accepted: 25 Nov 2021
Abstract
Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851–733,744; 23–62%). Impact by country ranged 6–93%, largest when implementation was early.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Article metrics loading...
Full text loading...
References
-
World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (WHO/Europe). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Copenhagen: WHO/Europe. [Accessed: 20 Jul 2021]. Available from: https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov#
-
World Health Organization (WHO). Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 16 November 2021. Edition 66. Geneva: WHO; 2021. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---16-november-2021
-
Galvani A, Moghadas S, Schneider E. Deaths and hospitalizations averted by rapid U.S. vaccination rollout. New York: Commonwealth Fund; 2021. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/jul/deaths-and-hospitalizations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rolloutb
-
Public Health England (PHE). Impact of COVID-19 vaccines on mortality in England. December 2020 to March 2021. London: PHE; 2021.Available from: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977249/PHE_COVID-19_vaccine_impact_on_mortality_March.pdf
-
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. World population prospects 2019. New York: United Nations. [Accessed: 10 Mar 2021]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population
-
Eurostat. Demo_pjan. Luxembourg: Eurostat; 2020. [Accessed: 22 Feb 2021]. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/estat-navtree-portlet-prod/BulkDownloadListing?dir=data&sort=1&sort=2&start=d
-
Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Statistical Abstract of Israel 2021 - No.72. Jerusalem: CBS; 2021. [Accessed: 11 Oct 2021]. Hebrew. Available from: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/Pages/2021/%D7%A9%D7%A0%D7%AA%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%A1%D7%98%D7%98%D7%99%D7%A1%D7%98%D7%99-%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-2021-%D7%9E%D7%A1%D7%A4%D7%A8-72.aspx
-
R Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation of Statistical Computing; 2016. Available from: https://www.R-project.org
-
Machado A, Mazagatos C, Dijkstra F, Kislaya I, Gherasim A, McDonald SA, et al. Impact of influenza vaccination programmes among the elderly population on primary care, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands: 2015/16 to 2017/18 influenza seasons. Euro Surveill. 2019;24(45):1900268. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.45.1900268 PMID: 31718740
-
World Health Organization (WHO). COVID-Deaths-Averted-analysis. GitHub Repository. GitHub. [Accessed: 14 Sep 2021]. Available from: https://github.com/whocov/COVID-Deaths-Averted-analysis
-
Goldberg Y, Mandel M, Woodbridge Y, Fluss R, Novikov I, Yaari R, et al. Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel. MedRxiv. 2021.04.20.21255670. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670
-
Andrews N, Tessier E, Stowe J, Gower C, Kirsebom F, Simmons R, et al. Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax against mild and severe COVID-19 in the UK. MedRxiv. 2021.09.15.21263583. Preprint. https://doi.org/ https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583
-
Ranzani OT, Hitchings MDT, Dorion M, D’Agostini TL, de Paula RC, de Paula OFP, et al. Effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine in older adults during a gamma variant associated epidemic of covid-19 in Brazil: test negative case-control study. BMJ. 2021;374:n2015. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2015 PMID: 34417194
-
Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, Absalon J, Gurtman A, Lockhart S, et al. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(27):2603-15. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 PMID: 33301246
-
Hauser A, Counotte MJ, Margossian CC, Konstantinoudis G, Low N, Althaus CL, et al. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe. PLoS Med. 2020;17(7):e1003189. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189 PMID: 32722715
-
García-García D, Vigo MI, Fonfría ES, Herrador Z, Navarro M, Bordehore C. Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study. Sci Rep. 2021;11(1):11274. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90051-7 PMID: 34050198
-
Bartsch SM, Wedlock PT, O’Shea KJ, Cox SN, Strych U, Nuzzo JB, et al. Lives and costs saved by expanding and expediting coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination. J Infect Dis. 2021;224(6):938-48. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab233 PMID: 33954775
-
Victora PC, Castro PMC, Gurzenda S, Medeiros AC, França GVA, Barros PAJD. Estimating the early impact of vaccination against COVID-19 on deaths among elderly people in Brazil: Analyses of routinely-collected data on vaccine coverage and mortality. EClinicalMedicine. 2021;38:101036. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101036 PMID: 34308302
-
Goldstein JR, Cassidy T, Wachter KW. Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2021;118(11):e2026322118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026322118 PMID: 33632802
Data & Media loading...
Supplementary data
-
-
Supplement
-