Eurosurveillance - Volume 28, Issue 5, 02 February 2023

As COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection was lower for cases of the Omicron vs the Delta variant, understanding the effect of vaccination in reducing risk of hospitalisation and severe disease among COVID-19 cases is crucial.

To evaluate risk reduction of hospitalisation and severe disease in vaccinated COVID-19 cases during the Omicron BA.1-predominant period in Navarre, Spain.

A case-to-case comparison included COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance data in adults ≥ 18 years from 3 January–20 March 2022. COVID-19 vaccination status was compared between hospitalised and non-hospitalised cases, and between severe (intensive care unit admission or death) and non-severe cases using logistic regression models.

Among 58,952 COVID-19 cases, 565 (1.0%) were hospitalised and 156 (0.3%) were severe. The risk of hospitalisation was reduced within the first 6 months after full COVID-19 vaccination (complete primary series) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.06; 95% CI: 0.04–0.09) and after 6 months (aOR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.12–0.21; pcomparison < 0.001), as well as after a booster dose (aOR: 0.06: 95% CI: 0.04–0.07). Similarly, the risk of severe disease was reduced (aOR: 0.13, 0.18, and 0.06, respectively). Compared with cases fully vaccinated 6 months or more before a positive test, those who had received a booster dose had lower risk of hospitalisation (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.28–0.52) and severe disease (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21–0.68).

Full COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of hospitalisation and severe outcomes in COVID-19 cases with the Omicron variant, and a booster dose improved this effect in people aged over 65 years.

As record cases of Omicron variant were registered in Europe in early 2022, schools remained a vulnerable setting undergoing large disruption.

Through mathematical modelling, we compared school protocols of reactive screening, regular screening, and reactive class closure implemented in France, in Baselland (Switzerland), and in Italy, respectively, and assessed them in terms of case prevention, testing resource demand, and schooldays lost.

We used a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools accounting for within- and across-class contacts from empirical contact data. We parameterised it to the Omicron BA.1 variant to reproduce the French Omicron wave in January 2022. We simulated the three protocols to assess their costs and effectiveness for varying peak incidence rates in the range experienced by European countries.

We estimated that at the high incidence rates registered in France during the Omicron BA.1 wave in January 2022, the reactive screening protocol applied in France required higher test resources compared with the weekly screening applied in Baselland (0.50 vs 0.45 tests per student-week), but achieved considerably lower control (8% vs 21% reduction of peak incidence). The reactive class closure implemented in Italy was predicted to be very costly, leading to > 20% student-days lost.

At high incidence conditions, reactive screening protocols generate a large and unplanned demand in testing resources, for marginal control of school transmissions. Comparable or lower resources could be more efficiently used through weekly screening. Our findings can help define incidence levels triggering school protocols and optimise their cost-effectiveness.