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Epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in the French overseas department Mayotte, 2020 to 2021
Marion Subiros , Charlotte Robert De Latour , Fanny Parenton , Ibtissame Soulaimana , Youssouf Hassani , Renaud Blondé , François Pousset , Yvonnick Boué , Camille Estagnasie , Gonzague Martin-Lecamp , Abdoulahy Diallo , Lucas Balloy , Mohamadou Niang , Christophe Caralp , Aurélie Cann , Abdourahim Chamouine , Alice Miquel , Geneviève Dennetière , Julie Durand , Maxime Jean , Sophie Olivier , Louis Collet , Nicole Tayeb and Patrice CombeBackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, national and local measures were implemented on the island of Mayotte, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean with critical socioeconomic and health indicators.
AimWe aimed to describe the COVID-19 outbreak in Mayotte from March 2020 to March 2021, with two waves from 9 March to 31 December 2020 and from 1 January to 14 March 2021, linked to Beta (20H/501Y.V2) variant.
MethodsTo understand and assess the dynamic and the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Mayotte, surveillance and investigation/contact tracing systems were set up including virological, epidemiological, hospitalisation and mortality indicators.
ResultsIn total, 18,131 cases were laboratory confirmed, with PCR or RAT. During the first wave, incidence rate (IR) peaked in week 19 2020 (133/100,000). New hospitalisations peaked in week 20 (54 patients, including seven to ICU). Testing rate increased tenfold during the second wave. Between mid-December 2020 and mid-January 2021, IR doubled (851/100,000 in week 5 2021) and positivity rate tripled (28% in week 6 2021). SARS-CoV-2 Beta variant (Pangolin B.1.351) was detected in more than 80% of positive samples. Hospital admissions peaked in week 6 2021 with 225 patients, including 30 to ICU.
ConclusionThis massive second wave could be linked to the high transmissibility of the Beta variant. The increase in the number of cases has naturally led to a higher number of severe cases and an overburdening of the hospital. This study shows the value of a real-time epidemiological surveillance for better understanding crisis situations.
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Recording of ’COVID-19 vaccine declined‘: a cohort study on 57.9 million National Health Service patients’ records in situ using OpenSAFELY, England, 8 December 2020 to 25 May 2021
Helen J Curtis , Peter Inglesby , Brian MacKenna , Richard Croker , William J Hulme , Christopher T Rentsch , Krishnan Bhaskaran , Rohini Mathur , Caroline E Morton , Sebastian CJ Bacon , Rebecca M Smith , David Evans , Amir Mehrkar , Laurie Tomlinson , Alex J Walker , Christopher Bates , George Hickman , Tom Ward , Jessica Morley , Jonathan Cockburn , Simon Davy , Elizabeth J Williamson , Rosalind M Eggo , John Parry , Frank Hester , Sam Harper , Shaun O’Hanlon , Alex Eavis , Richard Jarvis , Dima Avramov , Paul Griffiths , Aaron Fowles , Nasreen Parkes , Stephen JW Evans , Ian J Douglas , Liam Smeeth and Ben GoldacreBackgroundPriority patients in England were offered COVID-19 vaccination by mid-April 2021. Codes in clinical record systems can denote the vaccine being declined.
AimWe describe records of COVID-19 vaccines being declined, according to clinical and demographic factors.
MethodsWith the approval of NHS England, we conducted a retrospective cohort study between 8 December 2020 and 25 May 2021 with primary care records for 57.9 million patients using OpenSAFELY, a secure health analytics platform. COVID-19 vaccination priority patients were those aged ≥ 50 years or ≥ 16 years clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) or ’at risk’. We describe the proportion recorded as declining vaccination for each group and stratified by clinical and demographic subgroups, subsequent vaccination and distribution of clinical code usage across general practices.
ResultsOf 24.5 million priority patients, 663,033 (2.7%) had a decline recorded, while 2,155,076 (8.8%) had neither a vaccine nor decline recorded. Those recorded as declining, who were subsequently vaccinated (n = 125,587; 18.9%) were overrepresented in the South Asian population (32.3% vs 22.8% for other ethnicities aged ≥ 65 years). The proportion of declining unvaccinated patients was highest in CEV (3.3%), varied strongly with ethnicity (black 15.3%, South Asian 5.6%, white 1.5% for ≥ 80 years) and correlated positively with increasing deprivation.
ConclusionsClinical codes indicative of COVID-19 vaccinations being declined are commonly used in England, but substantially more common among black and South Asian people, and in more deprived areas. Qualitative research is needed to determine typical reasons for recorded declines, including to what extent they reflect patients actively declining.
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Role of population and test characteristics in antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, Czechia, August to November 2021
More LessBackgroundAnalyses of diagnostic performance of SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic tests (AG-RDTs) based on long-term data, population subgroups and many AG-RDT types are scarce.
AimWe aimed to analyse sensitivity and specificity of AG-RDTs for subgroups based on age, incidence, sample type, reason for test, symptoms, vaccination status and the AG-RDT’s presence on approved lists.
MethodsWe included AG-RDT results registered in Czechia’s Information System for Infectious Diseases between August and November 2021. Subpopulations were analysed based on 346,000 test results for which a confirmatory PCR test was recorded ≤ 3 days after the AG-RDT; 38 AG-RDTs with more than 100 PCR-positive and 300 PCR-negative samples were individually evaluated.
ResultsAverage sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% and 96.7%, respectively. We recorded lower sensitivity for age groups 0–12 (65.5%) and 13–18 years (65.3%). The sensitivity level rose with increasing SARS-CoV-2 incidence from 66.0% to 76.7%. Nasopharyngeal samples had the highest sensitivity and saliva the lowest. Sensitivity for preventive reasons was 63.6% vs 86.1% when testing for suspected infection. Sensitivity was 84.8% when one or more symptoms were reported compared with 57.1% for no symptoms. Vaccination was associated with a 4.2% higher sensitivity. Significantly higher sensitivity levels pertained to AG-RDTs on the World Health Organization Emergency Use List (WHO EUL), European Union Common List and the list of the United Kingdom’s Department of Health and Social Care.
ConclusionAG-RDTs from approved lists should be considered, especially in situations associated with lower viral load. Results are limited to SARS-CoV-2 delta variant.
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Seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and risk of COVID-19 in Navarre, Spain, May to July 2022
In Navarre, Spain, in May 2022, the seroprevalence of anti-nucleocapsid (N) and anti-spike (S) antibodies of SARS-CoV-2 was 58.9% and 92.7%, respectively. The incidence of confirmed COVID-19 thereafter through July was lower in people with anti-N antibodies (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05–0.13) but not with anti-S antibodies (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.47–2.38). Hybrid immunity, including anti-N antibodies induced by natural exposure to SARS-CoV-2, seems essential in preventing Omicron COVID-19 cases.
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SARS-CoV-2 infection in households with and without young children: Nationwide cohort study, Denmark, 27 February 2020 to 26 February 2021
More LessBackgroundInfections with seasonally spreading coronaviruses are common among young children during winter months in the northern hemisphere; the immunological response lasts around a year. However, it is not clear if living with young children changes the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults.
AimOur aim was to investigate the association between living in a household with younger children and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalisation.
MethodsIn a nationwide cohort study, we followed all adults in Denmark aged 18 to 60 years from 27 February 2020 to 26 February 2021. Hazard ratios of SARS-CoV-2 infection by number of 10 months to 5 year-old children in the household were estimated using Cox regression adjusted for adult age, sex and other potential confounders. In a sensitivity analysis, we investigated the effect of the children's age.
ResultsAmong 450,007 adults living in households with young children, 19,555 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, while among 2,628,500 adults without young children in their household, 110,069 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08–1.12). Among adults with young children, 620 were hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, while 4,002 adults without children were hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (aHR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.88–1.08). Sensitivity analyses found that an increasing number of younger children substantially increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection but not hospitalisation.
ConclusionLiving in a household with young children was associated with a small increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Functional immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population after a booster campaign and the Delta and Omicron waves, Switzerland, March 2022
Functional immunity (defined here as serum neutralising capacity) critically contributes to conferring protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19. This cross-sectional analysis of a prospective, population-based cohort study included 1,894 randomly-selected 16 to 99-year-old participants from two Swiss cantons in March 2022. Of these, 97.6% (95% CI: 96.8–98.2%) had anti-spike IgG antibodies, and neutralising capacity was respectively observed for 94%, 92% and 88% against wild-type SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron variants. Studying functional immunity to inform and monitor vaccination campaigns is crucial.
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COVID-19 vaccination and BA.1 breakthrough infection induce neutralising antibodies which are less efficient against BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, Israel, March to June 2022
This work evaluated neutralising antibody titres against wild type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 and four Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5) in healthcare workers who had breakthrough BA.1 infection. Omicron breakthrough infection in individuals vaccinated three or four times before infection resulted in increased neutralising antibodies against the WT virus. The fourth vaccine dose did not further improve the neutralising efficiency over the third dose against all Omicron variants, especially BA.4 and BA.5. An Omicron-specific vaccine may be indicated.
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Estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 65 years using electronic health registries; a pilot study in four EU/EEA countries, October 2021 to March 2022
Alexis Sentís , Irina Kislaya , Nathalie Nicolay , Hinta Meijerink , Jostein Starrfelt , Iván Martínez-Baz , Jesús Castilla , Katrine Finderup Nielsen , Christian Holm Hansen , Hanne-Dorthe Emborg , Anthony Nardone , Tarik Derrough , Marta Valenciano , Baltazar Nunes , Susana Monge and the VEBIS-Lot4 working groupBy employing a common protocol and data from electronic health registries in Denmark, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalisation due to COVID-19 in individuals aged ≥ 65 years old, without previous documented infection, between October 2021 and March 2022. VE was higher in 65–79-year-olds compared with ≥ 80-year-olds and in those who received a booster compared with those who were primary vaccinated. VE remained high (ca 80%) between ≥ 12 and < 24 weeks after the first booster administration, and after Omicron became dominant.
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Impact of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions applied during the second and third COVID-19 epidemic waves in Portugal, 9 November 2020 to 10 February 2021: an ecological study
BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
AimTo evaluate the impact of tiered NPIs and a nationwide lockdown on reduction of COVID-19 incidence during the second and third epidemic waves in Portugal.
MethodsSurveillance data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to conduct an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in daily incidence during a second wave tiered NPI period (9 November–18 December 2020), and a third wave lockdown period without (15–21 January 2021) and with school closure (22 January–10 February 2021).
ResultsSignificant changes in trends were observed for the overall incidence rate; declining trends were observed for tiered NPIs (−1.9% per day; incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.981; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.973–0.989) and a lockdown period without (−3.4% per day; IRR: 0.966; 95% CI: 0.935–0.998) and with school closure (−10.3% per day, IRR: 0.897; 95% CI: 0.846–0.951). Absolute effects associated with tiered NPIs and a lockdown on a subsequent 14-day period yielded 137 cases and 437 cases per 100,000 population potentially averted, respectively.
ConclusionOur results indicate that tiered NPIs implemented during the second wave caused a decline in COVID-19 incidence, although modest. Moreover, a third wave lockdown without school closure was effective in reducing COVID-19 incidence, but the addition of school closure provided the strongest effect. These findings emphasise the importance of early and assertive decision-making to control the pandemic.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 both show similarly reduced disease severity of COVID-19 compared to Delta, Germany, 2021 to 2022
German national surveillance data analysis shows that hospitalisation odds associated with Omicron lineage BA.1 or BA.2 infections are up to 80% lower than with Delta infection, primarily in ≥ 35-year-olds. Hospitalised vaccinated Omicron cases’ proportions (2.3% for both lineages) seemed lower than those of the unvaccinated (4.4% for both lineages). Independent of vaccination status, the hospitalisation frequency among cases with Delta seemed nearly threefold higher (8.3%) than with Omicron (3.0% for both lineages), suggesting that Omicron inherently causes less severe disease.
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Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in young children attending day-care centres in Belgium, May 2020 to February 2022
Liesbet Van Heirstraeten , Esra Ekinci , Mathias Smet , Matilda Berkell , Laura Willen , Jasmine Coppens , An Spiessens , Basil Britto Xavier , Christine Lammens , Jan Verhaegen , Pierre Van Damme , Herman Goossens , Philippe Beutels , Veerle Matheeussen , Stefanie Desmet , Heidi Theeten and Surbhi Malhotra-KumarPresence of SARS-CoV-2 was monitored in nasopharyngeal samples from young children aged 6−30 months attending day-care centres (DCCs) in Belgium from May 2020−February 2022. SARS-CoV-2 carriage among DCC children was only detected from November 2021, after emergence of Delta and Omicron variants, in 9 of the 42 DCCs screened. In only one DCC, two children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the same sampling time point, suggesting limited transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgian DCCs among young children during the studied period.
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Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021
Esther Kissling , Mariëtte Hooiveld , Iván Martínez-Baz , Clara Mazagatos , Naoma William , Ana-Maria Vilcu , Marjolein N Kooijman , Maja Ilić , Lisa Domegan , Ausenda Machado , Simon de Lusignan , Mihaela Lazar , Adam Meijer , Mia Brytting , Itziar Casado , Amparo Larrauri , Josephine-L K Murray , Sylvie Behillil , Brechje de Gier , Ivan Mlinarić , Joan O’Donnell , Ana Paula Rodrigues , Ruby Tsang , Olivia Timnea , Marit de Lange , Maximilian Riess , Jesús Castilla , Francisco Pozo , Mark Hamilton , Alessandra Falchi , Mirjam J Knol , Sanja Kurečić Filipović , Linda Dunford , Raquel Guiomar , Jade Cogdale , Carmen Cherciu , Tessa Jansen , Theresa Enkirch , Luca Basile , Jeff Connell , Verónica Gomez , Virginia Sandonis Martín , Sabrina Bacci , Angela MC Rose , Lucia Pastore Celentano , Marta Valenciano and I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC primary care study teamsIntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.
AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.
MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.
ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69–79), 76% (95% CI: 71–80), 63% (95% CI: 48–75) and 63% (95% CI: 16–83) among those aged 30–44, 45–59, 60–74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30–59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75–81), 66% (95% CI: 58–73), 91% (95% CI: 87–94) and 52% (95% CI: 40–61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52–77), 65% (95% CI: 48–76) and 83% (95% CI: 64–92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30–59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83–89) at 14–29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56–71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.
ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.
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Investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, March to April 2020: a retrospective cohort study
Franck de Laval , Hervé Chaudet , Olivier Gorgé , Joffrey Marchi , Constance Lacrosse , Aissata Dia , Vanessa Marbac , Bakridine Mmadi Mrenda , Gaëtan Texier , Flavie Letois , Charles Chapus , Véronique Sarilar , Jean-Nicolas Tournier , Anthony Levasseur , Jacques Cobola , Flora Nolent , Fabien Dutasta , Frédéric Janvier , PA-CDG COVID-19 investigation group , Jean-Baptiste Meynard and Vincent Pommier de SantiBackgroundSARS-CoV-2 emergence was a threat for armed forces. A COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle from mid-March to mid-April 2020.
AimTo understand how the virus was introduced, circulated then stopped circulation, risk factors for infection and severity, and effectiveness of preventive measures.
MethodsWe considered the entire crew as a cohort and collected personal, clinical, biological, and epidemiological data. We performed viral genome sequencing and searched for SARS-CoV-2 in the environment.
ResultsThe attack rate was 65% (1,148/1,767); 1,568 (89%) were included. The male:female ratio was 6.9, and median age was 29 years (IQR: 24–36). We examined four clinical profiles: asymptomatic (13.0%), non-specific symptomatic (8.1%), specific symptomatic (76.3%), and severe (i.e. requiring oxygen therapy, 2.6%). Active smoking was not associated with severe COVID-19; age and obesity were risk factors. The instantaneous reproduction rate (Rt) and viral sequencing suggested several introductions of the virus with 4 of 5 introduced strains from within France, with an acceleration of Rt when lifting preventive measures. Physical distancing prevented infection (adjusted OR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). Transmission may have stopped when the proportion of infected personnel was large enough to prevent circulation (65%; 95% CI: 62–68).
ConclusionNon-specific clinical pictures of COVID-19 delayed detection of the outbreak. The lack of an isolation ward made it difficult to manage transmission; the outbreak spread until a protective threshold was reached. Physical distancing was effective when applied. Early surveillance with adapted prevention measures should prevent such an outbreak.
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Assessment of mortality and hospital admissions associated with confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant: a matched cohort and time-to-event analysis, England, October to December 2020
Gavin Dabrera , Hester Allen , Asad Zaidi , Joe Flannagan , Katherine Twohig , Simon Thelwall , Elizabeth Marchant , Nurin Abdul Aziz , Theresa Lamagni , Richard Myers , André Charlett , Fernando Capelastegui , Dimple Chudasama , Tom Clare , Flavien Coukan , Mary Sinnathamby , Neil Ferguson , Susan Hopkins , Meera Chand , Russell Hope , Meaghan Kall and on behalf of the COG-UK ConsortiumBackgroundThe emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in England coincided with a rapid increase in the number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas where the variant was concentrated.
AimOur aim was to assess whether infection with Alpha was associated with more severe clinical outcomes than the wild type.
MethodsLaboratory-confirmed infections with genomically sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and wild type between October and December 2020 were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. We conducted two statistical analyses to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of testing between Alpha and wild-type infections: a matched cohort study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed differences in disease severity by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death.
ResultsOf 63,609 COVID-19 cases sequenced in England between October and December 2020, 6,038 had the Alpha variant. In the matched cohort analysis, we matched 2,821 cases with Alpha to 2,821 to cases with wild type. In the time-to-event analysis, we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with Alpha compared with wild type, but no significant difference in the risk of mortality.
ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increased infection severity associated with the Alpha variant. Rapid assessments of the relative morbidity in terms of clinical outcomes and mortality associated with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants compared with dominant variants are required to assess overall impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.
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Hospitalised patients with breakthrough COVID-19 following vaccination during two distinct waves in Israel, January to August 2021: a multicentre comparative cohort study
Tal Brosh-Nissimov , Yasmin Maor , Meital Elbaz , Shelly Lipman-Arens , Yonit Wiener-Well , Khetam Hussein , Efrat Orenbuch-Harroch , Regev Cohen , Oren Zimhony , Bibiana Chazan , Lior Nesher , Galia Rahav , Hiba Zayyad , Mirit Hershman-Sarafov , Miriam Weinberger , Ronza Najjar-Debbiny and Michal ChowersBackgroundChanging patterns of vaccine breakthrough can clarify vaccine effectiveness.
AimTo compare breakthrough infections during a SARS-CoV-2 Delta wave vs unvaccinated inpatients, and an earlier Alpha wave.
MethodsIn an observational multicentre cohort study in Israel, hospitalised COVID-19 patients were divided into three cohorts: breakthrough infections in Comirnaty-vaccinated patients (VD; Jun–Aug 2021) and unvaccinated cases during the Delta wave (ND) and breakthrough infections during an earlier Alpha wave (VA; Jan–Apr 2021). Primary outcome was death or ventilation.
ResultsWe included 343 VD, 162 ND and 172 VA patients. VD were more likely older (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.05–1.08), men (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0–2.5) and immunosuppressed (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.1–5.5) vs ND. Median time between second vaccine dose and admission was 179 days (IQR: 166–187) in VD vs 41 days (IQR: 28–57.5) in VA. VD patients were less likely to be men (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4–0.9), immunosuppressed (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.5) or have congestive heart failure (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3–0.9) vs VA. The outcome was similar between all cohorts and affected by age and immunosuppression and not by vaccination, variant or time from vaccination.
ConclusionsVaccination was protective during the Delta variant wave, as suggested by older age and greater immunosuppression in vaccinated breakthrough vs unvaccinated inpatients. Nevertheless, compared with an earlier post-vaccination period, breakthrough infections 6 months post-vaccination occurred in healthier patients. Thus, waning immunity increased vulnerability during the Delta wave, which suggests boosters as a countermeasure.
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Risk and protective factors for SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, surveillance data, Italy, August 2021 to March 2022
We explored the risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Italy between August 2021 and March 2022. Regardless of the prevalent virus variant, being unvaccinated was the most relevant risk factor for reinfection. The risk of reinfection increased almost 18-fold following emergence of the Omicron variant compared with Delta. A severe first SARS-CoV-2 infection and age over 60 years were significant risk factors for severe reinfection.
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mRNA vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) COVID-19 during Omicron variant predominance estimated from real-world surveillance data, Slovenia, February to March 2022
For the period of predominance of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Slovenia, February to March 2022, we estimated mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) COVID-19 using surveillance data. In the most vulnerable age group comprising individuals aged 65 years and more, VE against SARI COVID-19 was 95% (95% CI: 95–96%) for those vaccinated with three doses, in comparison to 82% (95% CI: 79–84%) for those vaccinated with two doses. Such levels of protection were maintained for at least 6 months.
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Assessing the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Spain, 30 August 2020 to 31 January 2021
BackgroundAfter a national lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, regional governments implemented different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the second wave.
AimTo analyse which implemented NPIs significantly impacted effective reproduction number (Rt) in seven Spanish provinces during 30 August 2020–31 January 2021.
MethodsWe coded each NPI and levels of stringency with a ‘severity index’ (SI) and computed a global SI (mean of SIs per six included interventions). We performed a Bayesian change point analysis on the Rt curve of each province to identify possible associations with global SI variations. We fitted and compared several generalised additive models using multimodel inference, to quantify the statistical effect on Rt of the global SI (stringency) and the individual SIs (separate effect of NPIs).
ResultsThe global SI had a significant lowering effect on the Rt (mean: 0.16 ± 0.05 units for full stringency). Mandatory closing times for non-essential businesses, limited gatherings, and restricted outdoors seating capacities (negative) as well as curfews (positive) were the only NPIs with a significant effect. Regional mobility restrictions and limited indoors seating capacity showed no effect. Our results were consistent with a 1- to 3-week-delayed Rt as a response variable.
ConclusionWhile response measures implemented during the second COVID-19 wave contributed substantially to a decreased reproduction number, the effectiveness of measures varied considerably. Our findings should be considered for future interventions, as social and economic consequences could be minimised by considering only measures proven effective.
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Mycoplasma pneumoniae detections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: results of a global survey, 2017 to 2021
BackgroundMycoplasma pneumoniae respiratory infections are transmitted by aerosol and droplets in close contact.
AimWe investigated global M. pneumoniae incidence after implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in March 2020.
MethodsWe surveyed M. pneumoniae detections from laboratories and surveillance systems (national or regional) across the world from 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021 and compared them with cases from corresponding months between 2017 and 2020. Macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae (MRMp) data were collected from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2021.
ResultsThirty-seven sites from 21 countries in Europe, Asia, America and Oceania submitted valid datasets (631,104 tests). Among the 30,617 M. pneumoniae detections, 62.39% were based on direct test methods (predominantly PCR), 34.24% on a combination of PCR and serology (no distinction between methods) and 3.37% on serology alone (only IgM considered). In all countries, M. pneumoniae incidence by direct test methods declined significantly after implementation of NPIs with a mean of 1.69% (SD ± 3.30) compared with 8.61% (SD ± 10.62) in previous years (p < 0.01). Detection rates decreased with direct but not with indirect test methods (serology) (–93.51% vs + 18.08%; p < 0.01). Direct detections remained low worldwide throughout April 2020 to March 2021 despite widely differing lockdown or school closure periods. Seven sites (Europe, Asia and America) reported MRMp detections in one of 22 investigated cases in April 2020 to March 2021 and 176 of 762 (23.10%) in previous years (p = 0.04).
ConclusionsThis comprehensive collection of M. pneumoniae detections worldwide shows correlation between COVID-19 NPIs and significantly reduced detection numbers.
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Behavioural insights and the evolving COVID-19 pandemic
Behavioural sciences have complemented medical and epidemiological sciences in the response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. As vaccination uptake continues to increase across the EU/EEA – including booster vaccinations – behavioural science research remains important for both pandemic policy, planning of services and communication. From a behavioural perspective, the following three areas are key as the pandemic progresses: (i) attaining and maintaining high levels of vaccination including booster doses across all groups in society, including socially vulnerable populations, (ii) informing sustainable pandemic policies and ensuring adherence to basic prevention measures to protect the most vulnerable population, and (iii) facilitating population preparedness and willingness to support and adhere to the reimposition of restrictions locally or regionally whenever outbreaks may occur. Based on mixed-methods research, expert consultations, and engagement with communities, behavioural data and interventions can thus be important to prevent and effectively respond to local or regional outbreaks, and to minimise socioeconomic and health disparities. In this Perspective, we briefly outline these topics from a European viewpoint, while recognising the importance of considering the specific context in individual countries.
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