When should we intervene to control the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?

H Sato; H Nakada; R Yamaguchi; S Imoto; S Miyano; M Kami

doi:10.2807/ese.15.01.19455-en

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When should we intervene to control the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?
H Sato^1,2 , H Nakada^2,3 , R Yamaguchi^2,4 , S Imoto^2,4 , S Miyano⁴ , M Kami³
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Affiliations: ¹ Department of Medical Informatics, National Defense Medical College Hospital, Saitama, Japan ² These authors contributed equally to this work ³ Division of Social Communication System for Advanced Clinical Research, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan ⁴ Human Genome Center, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Correspondence:
H Sato
hsato ndmc.ac.jp
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Citation style for this article: Sato H, Nakada H, Yamaguchi R, Imoto S, Miyano S, Kami M. When should we intervene to control the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?. Euro Surveill. 2010;15(1):pii=19455. https://doi.org/10.2807/ese.15.01.19455-en Received: 24 Nov 2009

Abstract

We simulated the early phase of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and assessed the effectiveness of public health interventions in Japan. We show that the detection rate of border quarantine was low and the timing of the intervention was the most important factor involved in the control of the pandemic, with the maximum reduction in daily cases obtained after interventions started on day 6 or 11. Early interventions were not always effective.