Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru

C V Munayco; J Gómez; V A Laguna-Torres; J Arrasco; T J Kochel; V Fiestas; J Garcia; J Perez; I Torres; F Condori; H Nishiura; G Chowell

doi:10.2807/ese.14.32.19299-en

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Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru
C V Munayco¹ , J Gómez¹ , V A Laguna-Torres² , J Arrasco¹ , T J Kochel² , V Fiestas³ , J Garcia² , J Perez² , I Torres³ , F Condori³ , H Nishiura⁴ , G Chowell^5,6
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Affiliations: ¹ Dirección General de Epidemiología, Peru Ministry of Health, Lima, Peru ² United States Naval Medical Research Center Detachment, Lima, Peru ³ National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru ⁴ Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands ⁵ Mathematical and Computational Modeling Science Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States ⁶ Division of Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States

Correspondence:
C Munayco
cmunayco dge.gob.pe
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Citation style for this article: Munayco C V, Gómez J, Laguna-Torres V A, Arrasco J, Kochel T J, Fiestas V, Garcia J, Perez J, Torres I, Condori F, Nishiura H, Chowell G. Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru. Euro Surveill. 2009;14(32):pii=19299. https://doi.org/10.2807/ese.14.32.19299-en Received: 31 Jul 2009

Abstract

We present a preliminary analysis of 1,771 confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)v reported in Peru by 17 July including the frequency of the clinical characteristics, the spatial and age distribution of the cases and the estimate of the transmission potential. Age-specific frequency of cases was highest among school age children and young adults, with the lowest frequency of cases among seniors, a pattern that is consistent with reports from other countries. Estimates of the reproduction number lie in the range of 1.2 to 1.7, which is broadly consistent with previous estimates for this pandemic in other regions. Validation of these estimates will be possible as additional data become available.