Validity of routine surveillance data: a case study on Swedish notifications of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Surveillance of communicable diseases is a public health corner stone. Routine notification data on communicable diseases are used as a basis for public health action as well as for policy making. While there are agreed standards for evaluating the performance of surveillance systems, it is rarely possible to analyse the validity of the data entered into these systems. In this study we compared data on all Swedish cases of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) routinely notified between 2000 and 2003 with follow-up information collected for each of these cases as part of a public health project. The variables Reason for testing (clinical sample, contact tracing, screening of risk group), Clinical presentation (disease, colonisation), Transmission setting (healthcare-acquired, community-acquired), Country of acquisition (Sweden, abroad) and Risk-occupation (yes, no) were analysed for sensitivity, positive predictive value and completeness of answers. The sensitivity varied between 23% and 83%, the positive predictive values were generally higher (55% to 97%), while missing answers varied from 11% to 59%. The proportion of community-acquired cases was markedly higher when excluding either cases of MRSA colonisation or cases found through public health-initiated activities (contact tracing or screening of risk groups). We conclude that the quality of routine surveillance data may be inadequate for in-depth epidemiological analyses. This should be taken into account when interpreting routine surveillance figures. Whether or not the case definition includes cases of MRSA colonisation may have a significant impact on population-wide estimates of MRSA occurrence.