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Abstract

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, R varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.

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2021-07-08
2024-12-22
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570
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Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Kimihito+Ito&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ito Kimihito</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Chayada+Piantham&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Piantham Chayada</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Hiroshi+Nishiura&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Nishiura Hiroshi</a></span>. Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2021;26(27):pii=2100570. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 15 Jun 2021;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 08 Jul 2021 </span> </p>
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