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Abstract

Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the ‘limited sustained transmission’ phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202
2020-03-05
2024-12-03
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202
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Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Helen+C+Johnson&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Johnson Helen C</a>, <a href="/search?value1=C%C3%A9line+M+Gossner&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Gossner Céline M</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Edoardo+Colzani&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Colzani Edoardo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=John+Kinsman&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Kinsman John</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Leonidas+Alexakis&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Alexakis Leonidas</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Julien+Beaut%C3%A9&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Beauté Julien</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Andrea+W%C3%BCrz&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Würz Andrea</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Svetla+Tsolova&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Tsolova Svetla</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Nick+Bundle&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bundle Nick</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Karl+Ekdahl&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ekdahl Karl</a></span>. Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(9):pii=2000202. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 27 Feb 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 04 Mar 2020 </span> </p>
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