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Abstract

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
2020-03-26
2024-12-30
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
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Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Giorgio+Guzzetta&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Guzzetta Giorgio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Piero+Poletti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Poletti Piero</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Marco+Ajelli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Ajelli Marco</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Filippo+Trentini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Trentini Filippo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Valentina+Marziano&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Marziano Valentina</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Danilo+Cereda&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Cereda Danilo</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Marcello+Tirani&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Tirani Marcello</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Giulio+Diurno&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Diurno Giulio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Annalisa+Bodina&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bodina Annalisa</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Antonio+Barone&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Barone Antonio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Lucia+Crottogini&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Crottogini Lucia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Maria+Gramegna&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Gramegna Maria</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alessia+Melegaro&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Melegaro Alessia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Stefano+Merler&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Merler Stefano</a></span>. Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2020;25(12):pii=2000293. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 12 Mar 2020;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 25 Mar 2020 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
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