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Abstract

Background

Tick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.

Aim

Our aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.

Methods

We measured the presence of tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.

Results

Our model predicted the spatial distribution of nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

Conclusion

The model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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2019-02-28
2024-11-07
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101
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Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Lene+Jung+Kj%C3%A6r&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Kjær Lene Jung</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Arnulf+Soleng&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Soleng Arnulf</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Kristin+Skarsfjord+Edgar&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Edgar Kristin Skarsfjord</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Heidi+Elisabeth+H+Lindstedt&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Lindstedt Heidi Elisabeth H</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Katrine+M%C3%B8rk+Paulsen&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Paulsen Katrine Mørk</a>, <a href="/search?value1=%C3%85shild+Kristine+Andreassen&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Andreassen Åshild Kristine</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Lars+Korslund&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Korslund Lars</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Vivian+Kjelland&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Kjelland Vivian</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Audun+Slettan&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Slettan Audun</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Snorre+Stuen&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Stuen Snorre</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Petter+Kjellander&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Kjellander Petter</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Madeleine+Christensson&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Christensson Madeleine</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Malin+Ter%C3%A4v%C3%A4inen&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Teräväinen Malin</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Andreas+Baum&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Baum Andreas</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Kirstine+Klitgaard&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Klitgaard Kirstine</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Ren%C3%A9+B%C3%B8dker&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bødker René</a></span>. Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2019;24(9):pii=1800101. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 05 Mar 2018;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 01 Aug 2018 </span> </p>
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