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Abstract

Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165
2018-04-26
2024-12-22
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165
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References

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  7. Guerra FM, Bolotin S, Lim G, Heffernan J, Deeks SL, Li Y, et al. The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis. 2017;17(12):e420-8.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30307-9  PMID: 28757186 
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  14. Measles monthly surveillance report, Greece, 8 March 2018. Athens: Hellenic Centre for Disease Control and Prevention; 2018. Available from: https://goo.gl/bt26we
A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Theodore+Lytras&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Lytras Theodore</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Theano+Georgakopoulou&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Georgakopoulou Theano</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Sotirios+Tsiodras&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Tsiodras Sotirios</a></span>. A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2018;23(17):pii=18-00165. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 05 Apr 2018;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 26 Apr 2018 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165
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    • Supplement: Additional modified chain-binomial model details and outcomes, and supplementary Figures and Tables

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