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The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016
- Diana Patricia Rojas1 , Natalie E Dean2,3 , Yang Yang2,3 , Eben Kenah2 , Juliana Quintero4 , Simon Tomasi4 , Erika Lorena Ramirez5 , Yendi Kelly6 , Carolina Castro7 , Gabriel Carrasquilla4 , M Elizabeth Halloran8,9 , Ira M Longini2
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1 Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States 2 Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States 3 These authors contributed equally to this work 4 Centro de Estudios e Investigacion en Salud, Fundacion Santa Fe de Bogota, Bogota, Colombia 5 Secretaria Municipal de Salud, Girardot, Colombia 6 IPS Universitaria, San Andres, Colombia 7 Secretaria Departamental de Salud, San Andres, Colombia 8 Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States 9 Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, United StatesDiana Patricia Rojasdprojas ufl.edu
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Citation style for this article: Rojas Diana Patricia, Dean Natalie E, Yang Yang, Kenah Eben, Quintero Juliana, Tomasi Simon, Ramirez Erika Lorena, Kelly Yendi, Castro Carolina, Carrasquilla Gabriel, Halloran M Elizabeth, Longini Ira M. The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016. Euro Surveill. 2016;21(28):pii=30283. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283 Received: 22 Apr 2016; Accepted: 12 Jul 2016
Abstract
Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11–5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.
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