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Abstract

Based on 2015 abundance of in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
2016-04-14
2024-11-05
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
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Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Giorgio+Guzzetta&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Guzzetta Giorgio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Piero+Poletti&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Poletti Piero</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Fabrizio+Montarsi&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Montarsi Fabrizio</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Frederic+Baldacchino&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Baldacchino Frederic</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Gioia+Capelli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Capelli Gioia</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Annapaola+Rizzoli&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Rizzoli Annapaola</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Roberto+Ros%C3%A0&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Rosà Roberto</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Stefano+Merler&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Merler Stefano</a></span>. Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2016;21(15):pii=30199. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 25 Mar 2016;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 14 Apr 2016 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199
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