Eurosurveillance - Volume 10, Issue 12, 01 December 2005

In January this year it was observed that 2005 was going to be the Year of the Rooster in the Chinese calendar, and that perhaps was an ill omen for bird (avian) and pandemic influenza. Certainly, influenza was the infection that then dominated the popular press in 2005, and so in a certain way this was a very ‘good’ year for influenza and those who study it. The infection has been getting the attention it deserves as a human threat.

An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 began in poultry farms in the Netherlands in 2003. Virus infection was detected by RT-PCR in 86 poultry workers and three household contacts of PCR-positive poultry workers, mainly associated with conjunctivitis. To determine the magnitude of and risk factors for human-to-human transmission of influenza A/H7N7 in the Netherlands, a retrospective cohort study among household members of infected poultry workers was undertaken. In total, 33 (58.9%) of 56 (among 62) participants who provided blood samples had positive H7 serology, using single convalescent serum samples obtained at least 3 weeks after onset of symptoms of the index case. Eight household members (12.9%) reported symptoms (conjunctivitis and/or ILI), of which four of five (80.0%) tested seropositive. On univariate analysis, significant risk factors for seropositivity included having at least two toilets, a pet bird, and using cloth handkerchiefs. It was not possible to obtain a stable model for binomial regression for the outcome of A/H7N7 infection. Further seroprevalence studies among contacts of asymptomatic H7 cases should be conducted.

Sentinel surveillance usually underestimates the true burden of influenza in a population, as individuals must present to medical establishments to be included in the surveillance system. We carried out a telephone survey to estimate the national burden of influenza in the Swedish population for one week during the 2004/05 influenza season. Fixed-line telephone numbers were randomly sampled and households interviewed concerning influenza illness between 14-20 February 2005 (Week 7 of 2005). Questions regarding seasonal influenza vaccination status, symptoms and the impact of illness on daily life were also included. A self-defined influenza prevalence of 7.7% in week 7 of 2005 was estimated. On applying a case definition of ‘cough and fever and muscle pain’ for influenza like illness, the prevalence decreased to 3.6%. The survey provided insight into the burden of illness in the population further to that estimated through the sentinel surveillance system.

Meningococcal disease surveillance in most countries is based upon a combination of statutory notification systems and laboratory reporting, both of which are recognised to underestimate the true burden of disease. The incidence of meningococcal disease varies throughout Europe, and although there are many reasons for this, it is important to quantify the degree of under-ascertainment in order to validate international comparisons. Here, we review the literature on the ascertainment of meningococcal disease in Europe and the available methods for estimating the degree of under-reporting. We found that the sensitivity of surveillance varies between countries and over time, with estimates ranging from 40% to 96%. We identified five methods suitable for conducting ascertainment studies, from simple comparative studies to more complicated capture-recapture and regression analyses. Studies of ascertainment may be used to identify weaknesses and biases in surveillance data, and facilitate the improvement of these systems. These findings are relevant to the surveillance of other infectious diseases, particularly those with lower mortality and a lower public profile than meningococcal disease, for which ascertainment may be worse.

National surveillance of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is based on mandatory reporting. The case definition for surveillance notification was changed in mid-2002 to include cases without microbiological confirmation. The IMD alert detection system was enhanced in 2003 with daily reporting and weekly analysis by district, serogroup, and age. Evaluation of the exhaustivity of the surveillance with capture-recapture analysis allowed correcting for underreporting. In 2003, 803 cases were reported. After correction for under-reporting, the estimated incidence was 1.78 / 100 000. After excluding ‘new’ cases reported with new definition criteria, the 2002-2003 increase was 4%. Incidence decreased with age, with the highest values in infants less than 1 year (20/100 000), children aged between 1 and 2 years (11/100 000) and in teenagers of 17 years old(7/100 000). The overall case fatality rate was 12%. Fifty nine per cent of cases were due to serogroup B, 32% to C, 5% to W135, and 4% to Y and non-groupable meningococci. Patients with purpura fulminans treated with intravenous antibiotics before admission to hospital were shown to have lower fatality rates than those not treated. In 2001-2003, 5 situations required particular attention: two clusters of serogroup B IMD had set off mass prophylaxis, one outbreak due to a specific B IMD clonal complex with high case fatality rate, and two districts crossed the alert threshold for serogroup C IMD, 2/100 000, and mass vaccination was recommended.

Once a year, countries that collaborate in the European Surveillance Scheme for Travel Associated Legionnaires’ Disease (EWGLINET) are requested to submit a dataset that provides epidemiological and microbiological information on cases of legionnaires’ disease (nosocomial (hospital-acquired), community and travel related) detected in their country for that year. This paper presents the data collected for 2003 and 2004. For this period, 9166 cases were reported to the dataset by 35 countries, of which 941 cases were associated with outbreaks. Fourteen countries reported a total of 218 detected outbreaks. National infection rates varied between countries from 28.7 to less than one case per million population. This information is valuable in that it allows countries to assess the effectiveness of their national surveillance schemes in detecting cases. Over the two year period, 748 cases were reported to have died, giving a case fatality rate of 8.2%. The lack of detailed epidemiological information on deaths from legionnaires’ disease is highlighted. The establishment of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is seen as an opportunity to develop European collaborations more fully, and to increase further the protection of Europeans from outbreaks of legionnaires’ disease.