Eurosurveillance - Volume 24, Issue 12, 21 March 2019

We assessed progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals target for tuberculosis in the European Union/European Economic Area using the latest tuberculosis (TB) surveillance and Eurostat data. Both the TB notification rate and the number of TB deaths were decreasing before 2015 and the TB notification rate further declined between 2015 and 2017. With the current average decline in notification rate and number of TB deaths however, the EU/EEA will not reach the targets by 2030.

In January 2019, two influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA), which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected from epidemiologically unrelated hospitalised children in Japan. The viruses exhibited reduced susceptibility to baloxavir but were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors. Only one of the two children had been treated with baloxavir. An epidemiological analysis suggests possible transmission of the PA I38T mutant A(H3N2) virus among humans.

Introduction: Isoniazid (INH) is an essential drug for tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Resistance to INH may increase the likelihood of negative treatment outcome.

Aim: We aimed to determine the impact of INH mono-resistance on TB treatment outcome in the European Union/European Economic Area and to identify risk factors for unsuccessful outcome in cases with INH mono-resistant TB.

Methods: In this observational study, we retrospectively analysed TB cases that were diagnosed in 2002–14 and included in the European Surveillance System (TESSy). Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to identify risk factors and correct for clustering of cases within countries.

Results: A total of 187,370 susceptible and 7,578 INH mono-resistant TB cases from 24 countries were included in the outcome analysis. Treatment was successful in 74.0% of INH mono-resistant and 77.4% of susceptible TB cases. In the final model, treatment success was lower among INH mono-resistant cases (Odds ratio (OR): 0.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6–0.9; adjusted absolute difference in treatment success: 5.3%). Among INH mono-resistant TB cases, unsuccessful treatment outcome was associated with age above median (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2–1.5), male sex (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.4), positive smear microscopy (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.4), positive HIV status (OR: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.6–6.5) and a prior TB history (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5–2.2).

Conclusions: This study provides evidence for an association between INH mono-resistance and a lower likelihood of TB treatment success. Increased attention should be paid to timely detection and management of INH mono-resistant TB.

Background: In 2009, an improved influenza surveillance system was implemented and weekly reporting to the World Health Organization on influenza-like illness (ILI) began. The goals of the surveillance system are to monitor and analyse the intensity of influenza activity, to provide timely information about circulating strains and to help in establishing preventive and control measures. In addition, the system is useful for comparative analysis of influenza data from Montenegro with other countries.

Aim: We aimed to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), for use in the influenza surveillance system in Montenegro.

Methods: Historical ILI data from 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons were modelled with MEM. Epidemic threshold for Montenegro 2017/18 season was calculated using incidence rates from 2010/11–2016/17 influenza seasons.

Results: Pre-epidemic ILI threshold per 100,000 population was 19.23, while the post-epidemic threshold was 17.55. Using MEM, we identified an epidemic of 10 weeks’ duration. The sensitivity of the MEM epidemic threshold in Montenegro was 89% and the warning signal specificity was 99%.

Conclusions: Our study marks the first attempt to determine the pre/post-epidemic threshold values for the epidemic period in Montenegro. The findings will allow a more detailed examination of the influenza-related epidemiological situation, timely detection of epidemic and contribute to the development of more efficient measures for disease prevention and control aimed at reducing the influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.