Eurosurveillance - Volume 22, Issue 7, 16 February 2017

We measured early 2016/17 season influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against influenza A(H3N2) in Europe using multicentre case control studies at primary care and hospital levels. IVE at primary care level was 44.1%, 46.9% and 23.4% among 0–14, 15–64 and ≥ 65 year-olds, and 25.7% in the influenza vaccination target group. At hospital level, IVE was 2.5%, 7.9% and 2.4% among ≥ 65, 65–79 and ≥ 80 year-olds. As in previous seasons, we observed suboptimal IVE against influenza A(H3N2).

The 2016/17 mid-season vaccine effectiveness estimate against influenza A(H3N2) was 15% (95% confidence interval: −11 to 35) in Navarre. Comparing to individuals unvaccinated in the current and four prior seasons, effectiveness was 24% for current and 3–4 prior doses, 61% for current and 1–2 prior doses, 42% for only current vaccination, and 58% for 3–4 prior doses. This suggests moderate effectiveness for different combinations of vaccination in the current and prior seasons.

Between 2014 and 2015, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control was informed of an increase in numbers of Salmonellaenterica serotype Chester cases with travel to Morocco occurring in six European countries. Epidemiological and microbiological investigations were conducted. In addition to gathering information on the characteristics of cases from the different countries in 2014, the epidemiological investigation comprised a matched case–case study involving French patients with salmonellosis who travelled to Morocco that year. A univariate conditional logistic regression was performed to quantify associations. The microbiological study included a whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis of clinical and non-human isolates of S. Chester of varied place and year of isolation. A total of 162 cases, mostly from France, followed by Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark and Sweden were reported, including 86 (53%) women. The median age per country ranged from 3 to 38 years. Cases of S. Chester were more likely to have eaten in a restaurant and visited the coast of Morocco. The results of WGS showed five multilocus sequence types (ST), with 96 of 153 isolates analysed clustering into a tight group that corresponded to a novel ST, ST1954. Of these 96 isolates, 46 (48%) were derived from food or patients returning from Morocco and carried two types of plasmids containing either qnrS1 or qnrB19 genes. This European-wide outbreak associated with travel to Morocco was likely a multi-source outbreak with several food vehicles contaminated by multidrug-resistant S. Chester strains.

The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza poses a significant challenge to public health in China and around the world; however, understanding of the transmission dynamics and progression of influenza A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover transmission to humans, remains limited. Here, we develop a mathematical model–Bayesian inference system which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover transmission. In addition, we generated accurate forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover avian influenza in humans is possible.