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Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

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/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
2018-03-15
2024-11-21
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
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References

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  5. Green HK, Charlett A, Moran-Gilad J, Fleming D, Durnall H, Thomas DR, et al. Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes. Epidemiol Infect. 2015;143(1):1-12.  https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814001757  PMID: 25023603 
  6. Vega T, Lozano JE, Meerhoff T, Snacken R, Beauté J, Jorgensen P, et al. Influenza surveillance in Europe: comparing intensity levels calculated using the moving epidemic method. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2015;9(5):234-46.  https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12330  PMID: 26031655 
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Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date
<p class="citation"> <span>Citation style for this article:</span> <span class="meta-value authors"> <a href="/search?value1=Josephine+L+K+Murray&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Murray Josephine L K</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Diogo+F+P+Marques&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Marques Diogo F P</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Ross+L+Cameron&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Cameron Ross L</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Alison+Potts&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Potts Alison</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Jennifer+Bishop&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Bishop Jennifer</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Beatrix+von+Wissmann&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">von Wissmann Beatrix</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Naoma+William&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">William Naoma</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Arlene+J+Reynolds&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Reynolds Arlene J</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Chris+Robertson&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">Robertson Chris</a>, <a href="/search?value1=Jim+McMenamin&option1=author&noRedirect=true" class="nonDisambigAuthorLink">McMenamin Jim</a></span>. Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. <a href="/content/ecdc">Euro Surveill.</a> 2018;23(11):pii=18-00079. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079" title="doi link" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079</a> <span class="ES_Article_citation"> <span class="generated">Received</span>: 19 Feb 2018;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="generated">Accepted</span>: 15 Mar 2018 </span> </p>
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
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    • Comparison of primary and secondary care virology with Goldstein and ILI indicators of both activity and prediction and MEM thresholds for 3 previous seasons

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