Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

H Nishiura; Y Miyamatsu; G Chowell; M Saitoh

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181

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Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case
H Nishiura^1,2 , Y Miyamatsu^1,2 , G Chowell^3,4 , M Saitoh^1,2,5
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Affiliations: ¹ Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan ² CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan ³ School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States ⁴ Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States ⁵ The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Japan

Correspondence:
H Nishiura
nishiurah gmail.com
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Citation style for this article: Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Chowell G, Saitoh M. Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(27):pii=21181. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181 Received: 22 Jun 2015

Abstract

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3-25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS. .