Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014

F O Fasina; A Shittu; D Lazarus; O Tomori; L Simonsen; C Viboud; G Chowell

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.40.20920

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Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014
F O Fasina¹ , A Shittu² , D Lazarus³ , O Tomori⁴ , L Simonsen^5,6 , C Viboud⁶ , G Chowell^6,7
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Affiliations: ¹ Department of Production Animal Studies, University of Pretoria, South Africa ² Department of Theriogenology and Animal Production, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria ³ Viral Research Division, National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, Plateau State, Nigeria ⁴ Nigerian Academy of Science, University of Lagos Campus, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria ⁵ Department of Global Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington DC, United States ⁶ Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States ⁷ School of Human Evolution and Social Change, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States

Correspondence:
F Fasina
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Citation style for this article: Fasina F O, Shittu A, Lazarus D, Tomori O, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Chowell G. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014. Euro Surveill. 2014;19(40):pii=20920. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.40.20920 Received: 23 Sept 2014

Abstract

We analyse up-to-date epidemiological data of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria as of 1 October 2014 in order to estimate the case fatality rate, the proportion of healthcare workers infected and the transmission tree. We also model the impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic. Results indicate that Nigeria's quick and forceful implementation of control interventions was determinant in controlling the outbreak rapidly and avoiding a far worse scenario in this country. .